5 lessons from Germany’s regional elections after the far-right’s historic victory: NPR

Bjoern Hoecke, Thuringia’s lead candidate for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, waves to supporters during an election campaign rally in Suhl, Germany, August 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

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BERLIN — Voters in two eastern German states — Thuringia and Saxony — have given a far-right party its best showing since World War II. The results of yesterday’s election have political observers worried about a resurgence of anti-immigrant, populist politics in Germany and Europe.

Here are five lessons we learned from yesterday’s election:

1. The nationalist, anti-immigration policies of the Alternative für Deutschland Party (AfD) are becoming increasingly popular in Germany.

The AfD, a nationalist party that has consistently blamed immigrants for many of Germany’s problems, has been around for 11 years and gained popularity six years ago after former Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed more than a million migrants from war-torn Middle Eastern countries to settle in Germany.

The AfD has become so notorious that it has been placed under domestic surveillance for its threat to the German constitution. Despite this, the party won the most seats in the elections in Thuringia, with almost a third of parliament (32.8%), and almost won the most seats in Saxony, with more than 30% of the vote.

2. Unbridled migration in Germany has become one of the biggest concerns of voters.

German voters are increasingly frustrated by the flood of migrants into the country in recent years, especially as the German economy stagnates.

Frustration reached a fever pitch last week when a Syrian man stabbed three people to death and injured several others at a festival in the western German city of Solingen.

After the attack, it became clear that the man should have been deported months ago, leading to growing anger about Germany’s immigration system.

3. Despite the party’s big gains in these two state elections, the AfD will probably not be able to participate in the government of either state.

That’s because all other parties in Germany refuse to form a coalition government with the AfD.

A young man carrying a bag with the text “The East Does It” attends an election campaign rally of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Suhl, Germany, Tuesday, August 13, 2024.

Markus Schreiber/AP

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Markus Schreiber/AP

Still, the nationalist, pro-Russia party could eventually gain enough seats in both countries to block decisions that require a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges and top security officials.

4. A party at the other end of the political spectrum than the AfD, but with similar populist politics, is the left-wing BSW party. This party has also caused a lot of commotion in both states.

The Sahra Wageknecht Alliance (BSW), a party around a popular former Communist Party politician, won more than 15% of the seats in Thuringia and more than 11% of the seats in the Saxony parliament just eight months after the party was founded.

Like the AfD, the left-wing party also advocates restricting immigration to Germany and opposes Germany’s support for Ukraine, as it wants a diplomatic solution to the war. The BSW’s strong performance is bad news for the German Social Democrats, the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who could draw more left-leaning voters away from the party.

5. What today’s election results could mean for next year’s federal elections in Germany

Perhaps most interestingly, the three parties in power at the national level – the Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the libertarian FDP – all suffered major losses in these state elections. This underscores how unpopular they have become with voters, not only in the former East, but nationwide.

It is clear that the country will shift to the right in the next national elections. That means stricter immigration rules and a greater focus on growing Germany’s stagnant economy. This is a trend we are seeing in other parts of Europe, notably France, where a strong performance by a right-wing party has yet to produce a new government.