New York Democrats Fear Abortion Rights Amendment Will Fail

NEW YORK — Democrats are bickering over an effort to guarantee abortion rights in New York, a fight that threatens to derail the party’s plans to win control of the House of Representatives.

Democratic advisers for candidates running for seats in the crucial race are increasingly concerned that a well-organized campaign by conservatives to defeat a proposed abortion amendment to the state constitution could harm the party’s candidates in key seats.

For now, top Democrats in New York have no plans to open their coffers to respond to these attacks.

The reluctance to spend has some party officials concerned that state Democratic leaders are failing to effectively counter an opposition that has seized on the amendment’s expansive language promising rights for LGBTQ+ people. The so-called Equality Amendment would ban discrimination based on “gender identity” and “pregnancy outcomes,” adding to the constitutional protections for race and religion.

An issue that should have been won as easily in New York as it has been won by Democrats across the country now risks backfiring because of the way they drafted the amendment.

The right’s pushback is based heavily on anti-trans rhetoric, an attack line that internal polling has shown has proven persuasive to voters in the battle for House districts, three people who reviewed the data told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the inside information.

Without a well-funded campaign to defend and strengthen the Equality Amendment, deep-blue New York could reject a referendum supporting abortion rights — with serious national political consequences for Democrats.

“This is long overdue,” said Teresa Gonzalez, a Democratic consultant in New York who is leading a campaign for Puerto Rican voters in the swing districts of Long Island and the Hudson Valley. “This is a call to action; we need to sound the alarm. This is a moment of crisis.”

Interviews with six Democratic consultants and advisers, including those who worked on the crucial election, revealed growing concern that the referendum — once seen as an effective tool to boost turnout and help the party take control of the House — has become an afterthought for a state party confident it will pass because of its potential bipartisan appeal.

Democrats are banking on abortion rights as a key part of their platform this year to motivate voters, two years after Roe vs. Wade was reversed. Vice President Kamala Harris has grilled former President Donald Trump on the issue, handily outperforming him in polls among women.

Voters in Republican-leaning states including Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio also expressed support for abortion rights provisions when they were put on the ballot.

Democratic officials in New York last year announced plans to stoke enthusiasm for the Equality Amendment with a multimillion-dollar campaign to draw attention to the proposal on the ballot, and specifically its guarantee of access to reproductive services, in an effort to help the party’s candidates.

But for now, proponents are trying to make up for lost time, while opponents of the amendment are trying to convince more voters.

The committee formed to support the Equality Amendment in New York has raised less than $3 million, well short of the $20 million threshold pledged late last year.

Democratic quarrels over spending money to promote the amendment stand in stark contrast to the bill’s opponents. An opposition group, Coalition to Protect Kids-NY, has held rallies and press conferences in recent weeks to highlight its concerns. The events have not focused on abortion, but have made claims that the amendment’s wording would allow mixed-race sports.

That publicity is expected to coincide in the coming weeks with a paid media campaign encouraging voters to reject the provision. So far, no fundraising goal has been set by opponents.

In addition to enshrining protections for reproductive health care and LGBTQ+ rights in the state constitution: It also includes language intended to strengthen rights based on age. On LGBTQ+ protections, it specifies: sexual orientation, gender, gender expression, and gender identity.

Republican candidates for the House of Representatives and state legislatures warn that the amendment will encourage transgender people to play women’s sports or weaken laws against rape of minors. Advocates of the amendment call these claims false and fear-mongering.

GOP candidates running on an anti-abortion platform across the state have been unsuccessful, but their approach to the amendment is different. And Democrats vying for seats in the House recognize that unanswered attacks on it can be effective.

“We live in a political climate where there is a lot of misinformation going around, and I would tell voters to make sure they are aware of this proposal and understand what it is supposed to do,” said John Mannion, a Democrat who supports the amendment and is running to defeat new Rep. Brandon Williams in the Syracuse area.

A May Siena College poll found that New York voters favored constitutional protections for abortion and transgender rights, 59 percent to 26 percent.

A Democratic consultant who reviewed internal polls found that voters in the House’s warring districts are receptive to the argument that the amendment would harm children. Voters generally support abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights, the poll found.

“But when you factor in the far-right talking points about this — boys playing in girls’ sports — support erodes quickly, and in these swing districts that can dampen enthusiasm for the candidates who are running for support,” said one Democrat who reviewed the data and was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the internal polling.

But that could be a challenge for Democrats. The only campaign supporting the amendment, New Yorkers for Equal Rights, has tried to toe a nonpartisan line by suggesting that Republican and independent voters who support abortion rights could be persuaded to vote for the amendment. Officials at the state Democratic Committee have pointed to that position as a reason for distancing themselves from the effort.

A state party official who has worked on abortion rights campaigns said similar referendums have been successful in other states when they are not tied to political parties.

“As the Equal Rights Campaign has made clear, Prop 1 must remain nonpartisan to be successful. Democratic leaders and the state party fully support the NY ERA and will continue to follow the campaign’s strategic guidance to ensure its success,” said the Democratic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

The ballot proposal gained momentum in the state Legislature after POLITICO first reported two years ago that the Supreme Court was on the verge of overturning the landmark decision Roe vs. Wade decision.

As the amendment headed to voters for final ratification, Democrats saw the provision as an opportunity to boost turnout among a base that supports abortion rights, an issue that has motivated the party’s candidates in state elections and New York’s House of Representatives.

New York has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world. But reproductive rights advocates have said the amendment is a necessary bulwark against future statewide efforts by a Republican governor to change abortion laws and send a message to the rest of the country.

Republicans and their allies, who have struggled with the abortion issue for years, have pointed to language in the bill that goes beyond abortion to strengthen rights based on age, sexual orientation and gender identity.

“We think it will also energize our voters,” said Gerard Kassar, the chairman of the right-wing Conservative Party. “We feel the need to talk about this and explain what we think it does.”

Democrats know how effective the Conservative Party, a small but influential organisation, can be in referendum campaigns.

The party helped fund an effort in 2021 to oppose a package of amendments that would have expanded proxy voting, allowed same-day voter registration and overhauled the redistricting process. Voters rejected the amendments, and left-wing activists at the time blamed New York’s Democratic Party for failing to push back against the opposition.

“We’ve seen in recent history that when the right wing in New York wants to kill a ballot initiative, they have wealthy people who will help them do it,” said Loren Amor, a Democratic consultant. “They can be quite effective, especially if there’s not a proportional response.”

Jason Beeferman contributed to this report.