With immigration and abortion on Arizona ballots, Republicans are betting on momentum

PHOENIX — Voters will vote on abortion and immigration measures in Arizona, a key state where Republicans are seeking to capitalize on concerns about illegal border crossings to counter an expected surge in turnout among those determined to restore and protect abortion rights.

And while the abortion initiative is backed by a grassroots campaign that’s been flush with cash, Republican lawmakers who added a measure to allow state law enforcement to crack down on people living in Arizona illegally say the initiative has already gained so much support that they don’t plan to raise money or spend much time selling it.

Abortion has inflamed many people since an 1864 law banning nearly all abortions was revived and quickly repealed this year. But immigration consistently tops the list of top concerns in this Western swing state, where anti-immigration legislation has long fueled national debates over illegal border crossings from Mexico.

“Voters are more likely to approve this to send a message that something, anything, needs to be done,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in Phoenix. “It lacks funding because people know it’s going to pass and it’s not going to have much of an impact on curbing illegal immigration into Arizona.”

Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma voted with his fellow Republicans in June to put the measure on the ballot, calling it common sense and just a small part of “what really needs to be done to secure the border.”

Frustration over illegal immigration persists despite steps taken this year by the Biden-Harris administration to stem an unprecedented surge of new arrivals. Democrats blame former President Donald Trump for making it a major campaign issue by persuading allies in Congress to torpedo bipartisan legislation that could have bolstered the federal response.

Republican lawmakers across the country have pushed tougher immigration regulations this year, with their majorities in Texas, Iowa and Oklahoma passing laws to establish state-level immigration enforcement. But in each of those states, federal courts have blocked their efforts to enforce the laws.

Democratic strategist DJ Quinlan said that despite general concerns about the border, many voters and stakeholders oppose this specific measure, which would make it a state crime for noncitizens to enter Arizona illegally from Mexico outside authorized ports of entry. The crime would allow local police to arrest violators and state judges to order deportations, tasks that have historically been left to the federal government.

“If you talk to a lot of people who work in law enforcement or in business or who deal with these kinds of issues on a daily basis, this referendum is not the answer,” Quinlan said.

The measure would also require state agencies that administer federal, state or local benefits programs to use a federal database to verify that ineligible noncitizens are not receiving the benefits. And it would protect law enforcement from civil lawsuits alleging racial profiling of Latinos or other minorities.

Some provisions don’t directly address illegal immigration, including making the sale of fentanyl that results in a person’s death a felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison. Latino groups argued that violated a state constitutional requirement that bills cover a single topic. The Arizona Supreme Court disagreed, clearing a path for voters to decide.

Kent Jenson, a 68-year-old retiree, said he opposes illegal immigration and hates drug use, so he plans to vote for the immigration measure and against the abortion initiative. “It’s horrible what fentanyl has done to families,” Jenson said.

Opponents argue the immigration legislation would damage Arizona’s reputation and economy even more than a so-called “show me your papers” law passed by lawmakers in 2010 and partially struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court two years later.

Costs are also a concern for some mayors, provincial governments and law enforcement officials, who warn that spending resources on border security could come at the expense of their daily operations and essential public services.

An Associated Press investigation of state campaign finance records found no specific contributions supporting Proposition 314, nor any donations explicitly opposing it.

Toma said Republicans are spending their time, money and energy on competitive races and other statewide ballot measures, with 13 in all. At stake are not only control of the U.S. Senate and the White House, but also state legislatures. Republicans hold a one-seat majority in each chamber, and Democrats are hoping to regain power for the first time in decades.

“People are going to focus, and rightly so, on the issues that actually need help,” Toma said.

Citizen-led Proposition 139, which would enshrine abortion access in the state constitution, has generated millions of dollars in donations and reached the ballot box with more than half a million signatures. Arizona is one of 10 states where voters will consider abortion protections.

“It is a fundamental human right that all women should have autonomy over their own bodies,” said Erin Dean, 34, a voter who used to be a registered Republican but now supports Democrats.

The political action committee Arizona for Abortion Access raised nearly $23 million as of late July, campaign finance records show. A PAC opposing the measure, It Goes Too Far, raised nearly $900,000.

Strategists from both the Republican and Democratic parties say the abortion measure could attract voters who might otherwise not be interested in voting.

Marson, the GOP strategist, expects it to boost turnout among young and first-time voters. The same can’t be said for the immigration measure, which he predicts will pass anyway.

“Not many teenagers are eager to vote on an illegal immigration issue, even if a large portion of the population supports the measure,” Marson said.

In Arizona, immigration votes have been popular before.

In 2004, voters made Arizona the only state to require proof of citizenship status to register to vote. A measure banning in-state tuition for non-citizens passed in 2006, but key parts were rolled back in 2022 when Arizonans voted to make students — regardless of their immigration status — eligible for state financial aid. ___

Gabriel Sandoval is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.