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Is Ohio a swing state? What does opinion poll say?

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Is Ohio a swing state? What does opinion poll say?

Ohio’s split-ticket voters are also wondering if Ohio’s swing state days are behind it, or if they are (or at least could be) again.

Robert Alexander and David J. Jackson
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Robert Alexander is a professor of political science and the founding director of the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. David J. Jackson is a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University.

Believe it or not, we live in a time when split-ticket voters still roam the earth. Although they are few in number, they are not yet extinct.

These voters are crucial in exciting election battles. From 2008 to 2020, voters have split their ticket between a presidential candidate from one party and a Senate candidate from another party only sixteen times, and only once since the 2012 election.

Split-ticket voting used to be much more common, as it happened 16 times in 1988 alone and a total of 59 times between 1976 and 1992.

Due to the increasing polarization between the parties, split-ticket voting has become rarer. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine voters electing Donald Trump and then turning around and voting for a Democrat as their choice in the Senate.

Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown are confident they can win re-election. Both races are essential for Democrats to maintain their majority in the Senate. After surveying Ohio voters, we find evidence that the rare but very important split-ticket voter still exists.

Is Ohio a swing state?

The Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network recently surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Ohio.

The poll found that 51% plan to vote for Donald Trump, while 44% support Kamala Harris. Still, 49% plan to vote to re-elect Sherrod Brown, while 45% support his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

Although small (about 4%), these voters will be critical to understand. It’s worth noting that 4% will likely represent several hundred thousand voters. And these voters will choose two very different political figures, with very different platforms.

Not surprisingly, Trump/Brown supporters are more likely than other voters to be independent (40% to 26%). They are also more likely to say they are “moderate” than other voters (54% to 29%).

In terms of education, Trump/Brown supporters are more likely to have a high school diploma (44% to 31%) or a two-year college degree (18% to 10%). They are also more likely to come from a union household (33% to 13%) and from a rural area (36% to 18%).

As Ohio says: How the race between Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno could shake up the US Senate

These demographic differences do not exist in a vacuum. They are related to policy positions and the populist rhetoric each possesses.

Why is Sherrod Brown targeting independents?

For example, much of the Brown campaign’s public message seems focused on reaching independent, moderate, non-college-educated, working-class, and rural voters. For example, Brown often speaks of the value of labor, emphasizing “the dignity of work” as the idea that hard work should pay off for everyone. This message may be especially appealing to working-class voters who also support Trump.

More specifically, Brown has addressed his concerns about the dignity of work at moderate, independent union members, stating: “From NAFTA to the Central American Free Trade Agreement, to normalizing trade relations with China to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, I have fought against bad deal after bad deal, negotiated by presidents of both parties on behalf of Ohio workers.”

Both Brown and Trump were skeptical of free trade agreements.

Sherrod Brown: Special interest groups want me out of office. “I’ll always be on your side.”

This assertion of a willingness to fight even against presidents of his own party should appeal to the Trump/Brown voter profile that emerged from our results. Voters in Ohio have traditionally embraced the idea of ​​independent politicians.

Brown even has a campaign commercial that joins Trump in laughing at a border security bill, saying he’s willing to go against his party for all Ohioans when necessary.

Notably, in 2022, Trump’s current running mate, JD Vance, ran against Democrat Tim Ryan. Although Vance won by a six-point margin, Ryan significantly outperformed the statewide margins. Republican Mike DeWine, the governor of Ohio, claimed 62% of the vote, while Vance claimed 53%.

This suggests to us that about 400,000 Ohioans voted for Republican Mike DeWine for governor and then turned around and voted for Democrat Tim Ryan for Senate.

Ryan didn’t have the name recognition or perks of an established position like Sherrod Brown. Brown has had a long career in Ohio politics and will certainly benefit from his established position and name recognition. This is especially true since nearly 1 in 5 Ohioans say they haven’t heard much about Bernie Moreno.

Ohio’s split-ticket voters are also wondering if Ohio’s swing state days are behind it, or if they are (or at least could be) again.

Ohio politics are complex. Since 2016, Ohio has delivered two eight-point victories to Donald Trump, while also passing legislation to legalize marijuana and enshrine reproductive freedom in the Ohio Constitution by double-digit margins.

Now we have the interesting case of voters supporting both Republican candidates Mike DeWine/Donald Trump and Democratic candidates Tim Ryan/Sherrod Brown.

These voters can likely determine whether Ohio continues to trend red or could return to shades of purple.

Robert Alexander is a professor of political science and the founding director of the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. He is the author of Representation and the Electoral College, published by Oxford University Press.

David J. Jackson is a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University. His main research interest is in the relationship between culture and politics.

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