Prognosis-Papst irrt zum ersten Mal

Der Wahlforscher Allan J. Lichtman lies better with his predictions. A Sieg Donald Trumps has not come. Hat signal System reports?

Washington, DC – Here the battle for Donald Trumps at the US-Wahl has begun with a victory. Umfragen zufolge hätte der Republikaner in Deutschland keine Chance gehabt. Also in the USA hat Trumps Erfolg manche Menschen offenbar kalt erwischt; Schließlich deuteten Befragungen bis uitetzt auf a Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen hin. Make sure that one of the target Wahlforscher remains behind with the blessing Prognose Daneben.

Allan Jay Lichtman has fought the first American war since 1984. Lediglich at the Wahl 2000 did not stimulate the enthusiasm of the Wahlkollegiums. Damascus has created Democratic candidate Al Gore to defeat US President George W. Bush. In Florida, both Candidates now die with 500 votes. That Wahl is gold plated so far. But with the US-Wahl 2024, the road will abruptly come to an end.

Prognose-Papst setzte bei US-Wahl auf Harris: Lichtman von Trump-Sieg overwhelmed

If the Wahlabend erste ergebnisse intrudelten, and a Sieg Trumps ever more wurscheinlicher became, Lichtman stands the exceeding of the ruddergeschrieben. “I don’t know,” the war has started on YouTube Livestream, like the German war, that Trump has won in the Swing State of Pennsylvania. The end of the nice study broadcasts thanked the history of my fans, who wrote in the chat, that is the format that we only see – the pride of the false prognosis. If you can understand the Mann, the quoted quote will contain the previous quote of a “Nostradamus der Wahlen”, so falsely lie?

Trumps Sieg bei der US-Wahl ausgeschlossen: Modell von Experte Lichtman separated

Lichtman Power Seine Vorhersagen immer nach der gleichen Methodik: “The Keys to the White House” (Die Schlüssel zum Weißen Haus). In 1981, the system was founded on the basis of 13 critiques, which went between two or more false purchases, when the presidential candidate for the amtieren was part of the next Wahl-gewinnen or losers in the world. Laut Lichtman’s System loses the amtierende partei of the Wahl, when this or more of the Schlüssel-falsch sind. If we want Schlüssel to fail, win the amtierende partei.

Forecast model for the US-Wahl: Das since Lichtmans 13 Schlüssel zum Weißen Haus:

• Party mandate: If the Zwischenwahlen the aspiring party are more in the US representative than after the previous Zwischenwahlen.
• Wettbewerb: It is important that the seriousness of the law is determined by the appointment of the aspiring parties.
• Amtsinhaberschaft: The candidate for the aspirants is the aspiring president.
• Dritte Partei: There is no way you can run a camp or hang a section.
• Kurzfristige Wirtschaft: The Wirtschaft has its origins in the Wahlkampfs in a recession.
• Long-lasting Wirtschaft: It is a real pro-kopf-wirtschaftswachstum that is guided through the times of life by passing the guard on the both joint Amtszeiten or the most sensible dieses.
• Politikwechsel: The ambitious direction has no greater interests in national politics.
• Social Unruhen: When the time comes, it is not possible to continue socializing in our time.
• Scandal: The Regierung was not affected by the larger Skandals.
• Auslands-/Militärversagen: The Regierung has no major Versagen in Auslands- or Militärangelegenheiten.
• Auslands-/Militärerfollow: Die Regierung erzielt große Erfolge in Auslands- or Militärangelegenheiten.
• Charisma of the Amtsinhabers: The candidates for the ambitions are charismatic or a national hero.
• Charisma of the Herausforderers: The candidates for the herausfordernden are not charismatic or a national hero.

If you have proposed a Sieg from Harris to the Wahlforscher, you can start the war yourself and the Auszählung has begun. As soon as the first trends emerge, where Lichtman is clear, the 13-Schlüssel-Modell is not functional. “After a long night, I was happy to be there during the day, my analyzes were good, and the results for America were good,” said Lichtman on Monday (November 6). USA todayas Trump’s second Presidential war.

Trumps Legacy at the US-Wahl – Prognose-Experte sah Wahlerfolg not coming

“It is not true, it is Lightman who falschen Tasten gedrückt hat,” says Robinder Sachdev vom in Neu-Delhi ansässigen Think Tanks Imagindia, from a study by the American University, gegenüber dem indischen Sender ETV Bharat. “There is a Schlüssel at the falschen Schloss angewendet”. The American Präsidentschaftswahlen see these other things as well as anyone else in history. “Sein Modell hatte dieses Möch nicht funktionieren können, dat in seich um an unusual Situation acted”, so Sachdev. “The Democrats have had their candidate gauntlet in the Wahlkampf status, it was more or less seen. It is a more normal Wahlkampf that Biden and Trump have seen, how Lichtman’s Schlüssel functions.”