Iran panics: Israeli Dolphin-class submarines can launch 80 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles

Summary and key points: Israel’s nuclear capabilities, though not officially acknowledged, are an important deterrent in the Middle East, particularly against Iran. Central to this is Israel’s fleet of Dolphin-class diesel-electric submarines, which are believed to carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

-These submarines provide Israel with a powerful second-strike capability, ensuring retaliation even if it is attacked. Israel’s recent purchase of the INS Drakon, a new submarine that may carry more advanced missiles, further strengthens this deterrent.

-The potential for a devastating conflict between Israel and Iran, however, underscores the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war. Diplomacy and avoidance are therefore crucial.

Dolphin-class submarines: Israel’s shield against Iran’s nuclear ambitions

With the prospect of a major regional war breaking out between Israel and Iran, little remains of Israel’s acknowledged nuclear weapons program. Unofficially, everyone knows that the beleaguered Jewish democracy has it.

But beyond that, the entire program is shrouded in mystery.

The most interesting aspect of Israel’s nuclear program is its ability to launch it from the sea. That’s because when you think of submarines capable of delivering nuclear weapons, you usually think back to the glory days of the Cold War, when Soviet submarines and American submarines danced around each other with their sabers with nuclear warheads. Today, China is probably considered to be part of that dangerous club of nuclear powers with sea launch capabilities.

Israel should also belong to that club.

The Dolphin-class submarine

Israel possesses five Dolphin class diesel-electric submarines. These submarines were purchased from the Germans and are said to carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. So while Israel’s naval nuclear capability is much smaller than that of the Americans, Russians, and Chinese, Israel’s naval nuclear deterrent is highly effective in dealing with regional threats.

Especially since Israel’s major regional enemy, Iran, still lacks the capacity to miniaturize its rudimentary (but growing) nuclear arsenal.

Even if Iran (probably through its terrorist allies) were to succeed in launching a devastating attack on Israel, the Israelis would have a second strike capability that the Iranians do not (yet) have and against which the Iranians have only limited defense.

Of course, the recent introduction of advanced anti-missile defense systems supplied to Iran by the Russian Federation could complicate Israeli deterrence at sea. However, while these defense systems may complicate Israeli attack plans, they are by no means foolproof in the face of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

Israel’s fleet of five Dolphin-class submarines are small. However, when operating together, these submarines can launch a total of 80 nuclear cruise missiles (16 cruise missiles per submarine). It is believed that each nuclear cruise missile can deliver a 200 kiloton blast to its targets. Furthermore, their size, maneuverability, and speed (around 25 knots) combined with their ultra-quiet diesel-electric engines make these submarines very difficult to detect and destroy (especially for Iran).

The Israelis have their Dolphin-class submarine force as the ultimate fail-safe. If all is lost, they know that the chances of blowing the attacker apart are very high (especially since Iran has very limited naval capabilities). With the prospect of a regional war breaking out between Iran and Israel, the Iranian military is well aware that the Israelis have the capability to completely decimate key targets deep inside Iran, thanks to Israel’s small but powerful fleet of Dolphin class submarines.

The INS Dragon

In fact, the Israelis have expanded their submarine force beyond what they already had. In 2023, German builders in Kiel launched the INS Dragon (meaning, “Dragon”) and sent it to Israel. Last year, Israel took possession of this German-built boat.

The key element of this new submarine is that it carries larger, more advanced missiles. In other words, Israel will likely be able to, with the Dragon, to launch larger-capacity missiles with nuclear warheads, likely capable of flying faster and further than Israel’s current arsenal of sea-based Tomahawk cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.

Marine news has shared (although unconfirmed) reports that the Dragon is “likely longer and equipped with a vertical launch system.” The publication also speculated (based on images of the submarine) that the new missiles could be mounted on the Dragon will be ballistic missiles, “possibly with a guided final stage.” In addition, there are additional launch tubes on the submarine that Marine news has stated that it will focus on “Israeli-developed cruise missiles.”

Hello Sutton from Marine news further assesses that “the new (ballistic) missiles are not a direct replacement for the cruise missiles.” According to Sutton, “one set of missiles may be conventionally armed and the other nuclear-armed. This would enable land-attack missions while maintaining a nuclear deterrent.”

The bottom line is that Israel is a nuclear dynamo. Despite all of Iran’s talk about their ability to damage Israel—and they have plenty of that ability through their terrorist proxies—the fact remains that Israel has significant capabilities to utterly destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran. The only real problem is that if Israel were to unleash those apocalyptic capabilities, it would likely mean the destruction of Israel and the end of the great hope that Israel represents for the global Jewish community.

A nuclear war is not worth it

Such an attack would therefore be equivalent to the temple collapsing over one’s head.

Israel and Iran should avoid each other like the plague. Both regimes would be utterly decimated in the kind of conflict we are talking about here, regardless of which side “wins” the confrontation. Any victory would be pyrrhic and therefore useless.

Author’s Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, will be published October 22 by Encounter Books. You can follow Weichert on Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock.

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