Six trends that could decide Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump

Pennsylvania has emerged as the most crucial battleground state in one of the wildest presidential races ever — with both campaigns battling for every last vote in the state that former President Donald Trump won by just 44,000 votes eight years ago.

Trump, who lost Pennsylvania in 2020, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, are both crisscrossing the commonwealth in hopes of securing a victory in the potentially decisive state.

Pennsylvania is unique in many ways: it is closely divided and geographically diverse. It’s changing, too, according to an Inquirer analysis of election data and interviews with dozens of Pennsylvanians that have produced a series of stories on voting trends this year.

Here are six key takeaways that Pennsylvania voters could influence the race — and the future of the country.

1. Suburbs and affluent urban areas have moved more toward Democrats, while rural areas and deep inner cities tend to lean toward Republicans.

In recent years, there has been a shift in the political allegiance of places once considered purely blue or red. The suburbs have become more Democratic, while rural areas and some deep inner cities have moved toward Republicans. At the same time, some post-industrial sectors are a wildcard: they supported Trump in 2016, but chose President Joe Biden in 2020.

All told, The Inquirer’s analysis found that the center has moved left since 2016, while Trump’s vote at the extremes increased.

The story may come down to education. Groups with higher percentages of college degrees earned shifted further toward Democrats, while those with less postsecondary education shifted right.

What it means: The presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania may not do so in a way we’ve seen before. Trump won the state in 2016 by capturing almost every region except Philadelphia and its suburbs. Biden won Pennsylvania four years later by cutting Trump’s gains in coal and steel country and boosting his margin in the suburbs.

Whoever prevails in Pennsylvania this year can do so by putting together a patchwork of support unlike anything we’ve seen before.

That means both candidates are trying to compete everywhere. Trump wants to grow among Latino voters in big and small cities. Harris will look to win big margins in the suburbs and become Philly voters. And ultimately, winning some of the most divided areas could have the most impact.

» READ MORE: The Five Types of Places You’ll Win Pennsylvania For

2. The suburbs are growing and becoming increasingly important to Democrats.

The suburbs have been blue for decades, especially in the voter-rich counties outside Philadelphia, but the once predominantly rural suburbs have also turned Democratic lately. It’s the site of the most dramatic increase in Democratic votes since 2016.

Take East Brandywine Township in Chester County. New homes have sprung up on former farmlands in the area, and the population has grown, sparking a political shift. Republican candidate Mitt Romney won the township in 2012, but President Joe Biden carried it comfortably in 2020. Interestingly, the number of Republican votes remained relatively unchanged – the difference came down to more Democrats living in the area.

Suburbs outside smaller cities also turn blue. In the Harrisburg metro area, for example, Democratic votes grew faster than Republican votes from 2016 to 2020.

What it means: Harris and her allies may focus on the state’s most voter-rich suburbs outside Philly and Pittsburgh in the latter part of the campaign. But Republicans still hold an edge in predominantly white suburbs statewide, and a strong performance by Trump could slow Harris’ growth.

» READ MORE: ‘City slickers’ who moved to Philly’s fast-growing suburbs could help Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump in Pa.

3. The Democrats have lost some ground in Philly, especially among the working class.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020, but Democrats still lost more votes in Philly than in any other state, worrying some in the party this year. The greatest losses occurred in working-class communities, and the trend was strongest in predominantly Latino neighborhoods.

Democrats lost the most ground in neighborhoods where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest. At the same time, the city’s districts with the lowest poverty rates shifted to the left.

In some working-class areas of the city, voters increasingly cast their votes for Trump. In others, Democratic votes fell largely because turnout fell — fewer people showing up in blue strongholds is actually a win for Republicans.

What it means: Harris will undoubtedly carry Philadelphia, but the question now is: how much? Trump and his allies are doing everything they can to lose the city by fewer votes than four years ago, and some polls suggest he could be successful.

Yet many voters in Philly haven’t exactly turned on Trump — they’ve merely expressed ambivalence toward the Democratic party. That means Harris has an opening to reinvigorate the Democratic base and try to boost turnout in the final days of the campaign.

» READ MORE: In deep blue Philly, working-class voters are shifting toward Republicans

4. The core of Republican support remains in rural areas.

Rural voters are the largest voting group in the state after suburban voters, and they are the core of Trump’s support. That reflects a long-term marriage between the conservative ideology there and the Republican Party, as well as a political realignment that has shifted some former Democrats to the right.

Geographically, that means the widest parts of Pennsylvania are still Trump country. Rural areas are losing population faster than other places in the state, such as the suburbs, but Trump still managed to increase his net vote share in rural areas in 2020 compared to 2016.

What it means: Harris could see an opportunity to reduce Trump’s support in rural areas like Lancaster County, which generally leans left thanks to gains in some of the largest cities. But large swaths of rural areas have become even redder since 2016, and Trump looks likely to grow even further there this year.

» READ MORE: Donald Trump is counting on voters in rural Pa. – the second largest voting group in the state – will win. Will it be enough?

5. Republicans have made inroads in Pennsylvania’s small towns, where the Latino population is growing.

Democrats held Pennsylvania’s three Latino cities in 2020 — Reading, Allentown and Hazleton — but Republicans won more votes than Democrats compared to 2016.

Reading had particularly large Democratic losses and Republican gains, and the Republican vote grew by the largest numbers in the deepest Latino parts of the city. Between 2016 and 2020, Trump’s vote in Reading grew by 37%. Biden received 12% fewer votes in 2020 than 2016 Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s campaign clearly sees the area as ripe for growth. He held a rally in Reading last week, and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, appeared at a town hall event there this weekend.

What it means: Winning over Pennsylvania’s Latino population could be crucial. If Trump can leverage and build on his growth with the bloc in 2020, he could improve his vote totals in these traditionally Democratic strongholds.

» READ MORE: Growing support for Donald Trump in majority-Latino cities like Reading could help him win Pa.

6. Former manufacturing towns are unpredictable and could be the most defining places in the state.

Many of Pennsylvania’s once-prosperous coal and steel towns have turned around in the past three election cycles. Once Democratic strongholds, former president Barack Obama performed well in these areas, but Trump red flagged many of them in 2016. In 2020, however, Biden made gains, winning back some former manufacturing cities or at least blunting Trump’s growth there.

These small towns and cities in the Rust Belt, like Johnstown and Bristol, began a shift to the right about a decade ago. fueled by Trump’s populism. Although he lost the state in 2020, Trump drew more votes from many historically blue towns along the Susquehanna River in northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania than when he won the state in 2016.

What it means: These cities could decide the election as Trump looks to shore up support among white working-class voters and Harris tries to replicate Biden’s 2020 gains by appealing to the political center.

» READ MORE: Can Kamala Harris win back support in Pa.’s Trump-friendly Rust Belt?

Inquirer staff writers Katie Bernard, Layla Jones, Aliya Schneider and Sean Collins Walsh contributed.