Former army chief warns of ‘weak’ UK missile defences

The UK could face war with Russia within the next five years if it does not quickly replenish its arms stockpiles and strengthen its defences, according to former British Army chief General Sir Patrick Sanders.

Speaking on the Money Maze podcast, Sir Patrick, who stepped down as Chief of the General Staff in June, discussed the need for the UK to rebuild its military stockpiles, which have been significantly reduced by support for Ukraine.

“If we don’t replenish and recapitalize what are currently very, very depleted stocks, then we run the risk of conflicts becoming inevitable,” Sir Patrick warned. Sir Patrick also expressed concern about the UK’s ability to defend itself against airstrikes, describing the country’s current defence capabilities as “weak”. He stressed the importance of replenishing missile stocks to ensure the UK can respond effectively in the event of an unlikely airstrike.

During the podcast, Sir Patrick also noted that the British Army is currently “historically very small,” and stressed the need to rapidly increase troop levels to address the growing threat of global power conflicts, warning that it could take five to 10 years to restore the military’s strength.

Looking ahead, Sir Patrick pointed to potential emerging threats from other global powers, specifically mentioning the possibility of a simultaneous threat from Russia and China by the late 2020s. He suggested that the best way to avoid such conflicts is to ensure that the UK “ready to fight, able to deter and prevent these conflicts from happening in this decade.”

Earlier this year, we reported that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced a comprehensive framework for missile defence research and development, titled Science and Technology Oriented Research and Development in Missile Defence (STORM).

The contract will manage the delivery of research encompassing all activities to counter ballistic missiles and advanced threats, including but not limited to simple non-separating threats, complex separating threats, Manoeuvring Re-Entry Vehicles (MaRVs), Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicles (MIRVs), Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM) and hybrid threats.

The required research includes analysis, experiments, trials and technology/system development on all pillars of missile defense:

• Counter-proliferation: Measures to minimize the spread of missile technology.
• Deterrence: Measures to discourage the use of missile threats.
• Counterforce: Actions to reduce the amount of missiles and supporting equipment available to an aggressor during a conflict.
• Active defense: Strategies to detect, track, intercept, and disable or destroy missiles in the air.
• Passive defense: Measures to mitigate and recover from the effects of missile impacts.

The STORM framework, with an estimated budget of £110 million to £251 million, will cover a broad spectrum of missile defence activities. According to the MoD, the contract will “managing the delivery of research encompassing all activities to counter ballistic missiles and advanced threats, including but not limited to simple non-separating threats, complex separating threats, Manoeuvring Re-Entry Vehicles (MaRVs) and Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicles (MIRVs), Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM) and hybrid threats that share characteristics with BM, HGV and/or HCM.”

The Department of Defense outlines the historical and current challenges posed by ballistic missiles: “Since the first V2 attack on London in 1944, ballistic missiles have posed an almost constant threat to the UK, its overseas interests and its forces. Adversaries continue to invest in and deploy increasingly sophisticated ballistic and agile threat systems to challenge our freedom of movement.”

The Department of Defense specifies the pillars of missile defense research within the STORM framework as follows:

• “Counterproliferation: measures to minimize the spread of missile technology.”
• “Deterrence: Measures to discourage the use of missile threats.”
• “Counterforce: Actions to reduce the amount of missiles and supporting equipment available to an aggressor during a conflict.”
• “Active defense: strategies to detect, track, intercept, and disable or destroy missiles in the air.”
• “Passive defense: measures to mitigate and recover from the effects of missile impacts.”

The UK Missile Defence Centre (MDC), a unique government-industry partnership within the MoD Head Office, will lead the STORM framework. The MDC is responsible for all UK missile defence research and development (R&D) and provides support to decision makers on all aspects of missile defence. The MDC was established to “to provide a funding channel to support SQEP (Suitably Qualified and Experienced Personnel) in relevant UK industry sectors.”

The Ministry of Defence emphasises the strategic importance of the STORM framework: “The Missile Defence R&D Category Strategy, approved in May 2023, recommended creating a new route to market that brings together core research and technology development projects into a single contract, improving research results and supply chain efficiency.”

The selected contractor will work closely with the MDC to “design and manage a contract pipeline to meet the research requirements of the missile defense R&D category.” This will include large, multi-year research technology maturation projects, multinational and multi-vendor trials and short-term rapid analyses. The coordination function is expected to be based at the Missile Defence Centre at Farnborough.

The notice further explains that “The necessary research will include analysis, experimentation, testing and technology/system development across all pillars of missile defense.”

The STORM framework is part of the MOD Science & Technology (S&T) Strategy 2020, which aims to “to maintain, exploit and develop UK industrial and academic expertise to continue to develop next-generation and subsequent generations of technologies applicable to integrated air and missile defence.”