Change from “Smart Money” to “Dumb Money”?

As a result of the fight against the messages in the American American labor market, it is possible that the reaction of the American manager to the message will come.

Zur Erinnerung: On August 2, the Einkaufsmanagerindex of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) presented an Avalanche for the American American reporter on the Aktienmarkt in Rollen (siehe “Jetzt rollt die Avalanche”). If you read the US American Labor Market report on the ISM-Index index you will find more information about it. Nur noch 46,8 Punkten gab er weiter nach (Vormonat: 48,5), sogar sehr deutlich, blieb damit unterhalb der Erwartungen (48,8) entfernte sich weiter von der Wachstumsschwelle, die bij 50 Zählern liegt.

Before we use the new data from S&P Global, the US industry is out of the prizes. The Frühindikator for August fell to 48.0 years, from 49.6 years in July, and fell short of analysts’ forecasts, who now have a minimal pullback to 49.5 on the Zetteln caps in the breakout.

Since August 2nd is the last day, the dates for the Service Sector will be made available. On August 5, ISM data started with S&P Global’s data dampening a recession in the US. The demnach lowers the service index from 55.0 in July to 55.2 in August (Erwartung: 54.0).

The American service provider also looks at the 4th month with a relatively high pace. One of the best companies, the Einkaufsmanagerindex for the joint US economy, also the Industry and the Service, which offers the strong backs of the Industry only light at 54.1, from 54.3 in Formonat, statt als erwartet at 53.2 deutlicher abzurutschen.

If the journey is a milder breakdown of the US-Wirtschaft festivities over the course of a 4-month period, it is not relative how we can make a recession that will not really work. We have put the current figures of S&P Global on a waiting list of the US-BIP in 3. Quarter of annual 2% hin.

Für die Bullen gehen Träume in Erfüllung

When the economy started to grow, inflation was in the grip of inflation, so the US-Notenbank (Fed) went with the inflation on the Labor Market Data Good Ground for a first percentage point a 0.25 percentage point on the starting position in September hat. And it is not so wonderful that a percentage point on the market with a probability of 100% has been priced in.

(Source: CME Group (NASDAQ:))

One of the 50 basis points, which is immersed in a probability of 34.5% is lost, can be lost in a day. If inflation is not that high, the economy will not be strong and the market will stop with a little panic.

Powell sends a signal for an added sentence sense

In the Jackson Hole-Tagung speech in the room where Fed chief Jerome Powell hangs the mantra of the note bank, the time of the time and the time of the previous sentences of the unified data, he says that it is so “At the time, that (money) politics changes“.

Der Grund: Aus Sicht der Notenbank shows es „If you keep an eye on the Labor Market, there is high inflation. We will no longer continue to invest the labor market and no longer use it“, Powell said.

It is clear that an analysis of a power market strategy (ich bericht) is now a government of sense-making, a monetary policy of limiting a zero level to an undesirable level. And when that is almost begun, this Powell-aussagen signals: „The inflation risks are abnormal. And the risks to the description are so great.“And we give you a clear view”from Annahme, the economy is one of the most important economic issues in politics with an inflation rate of 2 percent and a sharper assessment of the labor market.“

If we don’t know anything, maybe Powell can make it clearer to the market that he is lying gold-right with his experiences in a first sentence in September. If the nut bank gets an idea of ​​the smaller amounts on the statement, this could mean a sentence. I wrote it on August 1: “With others and clarity: The US-Notenbank has written a sentence at the next meeting in September (verbally).“ (Siehe „Wilder Aktienmarkt, planmäßiger Anleihemarkt“.) Also everything in its own right keine Überraschung.

Change from “Smart Money” to “Dumb Money”?

Dennoch explains the Aktienmark in a first reaction as deutlich zu. If you are a little informed, if you have the tendency to move, you now no longer die relatively along the way and it is no longer possible to cause damage, while it takes longer than 100 minutes It is a matter of the Aktienindiase, which follows the following graph.

A single price story has become less large, as Kleinanleger still takes a relatively small position in the purchase mode on the price along the side of the treiben, large investors who still have more rising prices on the market, large positions on the market on the market, were the prices Kurseinbrüchen führt.

At the end of these processes, the retail companies with their investments and the investments in learned depositories should earn a larger amount of money. This group has a share in the financing of ‘Smart Money’ and ‘Dumb Money’ for the institutional Anleger (Schlaues Geld) bzw. Privatanleger (dommes Geld) eingebürgert. If you also make the right choice from the active rate, if you use ‘Smart Money’, it may be that you are not an institutional investor.

There is no talk yet that the price will continue. It can be a passion, when the bare spine starts, when the investors lose their positions, and the price continues, the private activities will also be bullish. It is possible to play with passion, while the bulls go through the standard setback of the manual work and in the renovation way, that is due to the correction. Letzteres ist, as said, häufig der Fall.

I wish I had fallen again, but I fell again in the Börse
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