Malik Siraj Akbar: ‘Baloch believes Pakistan will disintegrate’

‘The struggle of pro-independence insurgents and political activists is fueled by the deep conviction that a free Balochistan is not only possible, but that Pakistan will inevitably disintegrate, leading to the independence of Balochistan.’

IMAGE: Bomb disposal squad members investigate the site of an explosion in Khanozai, Balochistan, February 7, 2024. Photo: Naseer Ahmed/Reuters

“If you examine the Baloch nationalist messages, it often looks like a plea to Americans and Indians, portraying their struggle as an attempt to drive out a common enemy: China,” the journalist points out Malik Siraj Akbarwho fled Balochistan in 2010 and now lives in exile in the US.

Akbar is part of a small group of Baloch fighters in exile, made up of political activists, journalists and others who have had to flee to escape repression by the Pakistani military.

“The nationalists believe that they have been effective in this struggle and now expect support in the larger struggle. However, this is not how the United States or India see China or the Balochistan movement,” Malik Siraj Akbar says in a detailed email interview with Rediff.com‘S Archana Masih.

Part II of an indispensable interview on the root causes of the Pakistan-Balochistan conflict and why Balochistan is on fire.

Why are highly educated, middle-class radicals so angry with the Pakistani state?

The Baloch middle class is the biggest victim of the military operations and enforced disappearances in Pakistan.

The situation is simple: education increases awareness of one’s history, culture and rights, which makes educated people question Islamabad’s policies towards Balochistan.

Islamabad’s flawed and arrogant approach gives the young Baloch ample reasons to be disillusioned and disappointed with the Pakistani state.

As more and more youth voice their discontent and demand political rights and equal treatment, Pakistan feels increasingly threatened and responds with violence to suppress the Baloch youth.

This creates a vicious circle: the more the state uses repressive measures and violence against the Baloch, the more they lose faith in the country’s political and legal systems. They turn to alternatives, such as insurgent groups, which they see as capable of taking swift revenge.

IMAGE: A plane flies around the Statue of Liberty with the message ‘UN must help end human rights violations in Balochistan’, September 27, 2019. Photo: ANI Photo

Independence for Balochistan is politically unrealistic. What do these Baloch rebels hope to achieve?

The pro-independence rebels and political activists strongly disagree that their goal is unachievable.

Their struggle is fueled by the deep conviction that a free Balochistan is not only possible, but that Pakistan will inevitably disintegrate, leading to the independence of Balochistan.

Since it is difficult to discuss with people who are armed, we have not had many opportunities to challenge the armed groups in Balochistan with their strategy and roadmap to win the freedom of Balochistan.

Many Baloch I speak to naively hope that one day the United States or India will step in and help them become independent. This hope has recently been heightened by China’s growing presence in the region.

When you look at the Baloch nationalist messages, it often seems like a plea to Americans and Indians, portraying their struggle as an attempt to oust a common enemy (China).

They believe they have been effective in this struggle and now expect support in the larger struggle. However, this is not how the United States or India see China or the Balochistan movement.

Another widespread belief among Baloch nationalists is that global political dynamics will eventually change, leading to the US supporting a free Balochistan as a means to counter Iran and China.

When confronted with skepticism about their arguments, they often point to the disintegration of the Soviet Union and say, “Who would have thought it would fall apart? But it did.”

While there is ample room to debate the idea of ​​a free Balochistan, Baloch nationalists argue that such debates are premature and distracting at this point. They would rather focus on their struggle for independence and save discussions about the details of governing Balochistan until after they have achieved their goal.

IMAGE: Police officers arrest a supporter of the Balochistan Yakjehti Committee as she arrives for a press conference in Karachi, July 31, 2024, after activists were arrested during what they call the Baloch National Gathering in Gwadar. Photo: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters

Will this be a long-term war that no one wins, with countless Baloch families paying the price with deaths at the hands of government agencies and disappearances of loved ones?
What do you think the endgame could be in Balochistan? Or is there no endgame at all?

This is the core argument of moderate nationalist political parties from the Baloch party: they remind armed groups that fighting a nuclear-armed state is futile and will only harm the Baloch people, especially as it costs them their youth.

With their small population, the Baloch cannot afford to lose their youth in a senseless conflict. While this discussion has already begun among the Baloch, the lack of confidence-building measures by the Pakistani military and the federal government, such as ending enforced disappearances, has weakened the voices of moderates.

I expect this conflict to continue for a long time to come because groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army show no signs of fatigue or victimhood; they claim they are prepared to fight for as long as it takes.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military has dismissed reports of “military operations” in the province as false and exaggerated. The army says no large-scale military operation, such as the one against the Pakistani Taliban, has been carried out in Balochistan.

If the Pakistani army were to officially invade Balochistan to eliminate the insurgents, it would likely lead to a dire scenario.

IMAGE: A view of the Gwadar Port in Gwadar, Pakistan. Photo: Drazen Jorgic/Reuters

The epicentre, so to speak, of CPEC is in Balochistan. How much has that contributed to the unrest in the province?
Are the Pakistani army and the Islamabad government under Chinese pressure to ensure that Baloch nationalism does not disrupt the CPEC?

Every movement needs a compelling issue to justify its existence and mobilize its supporters. For Baloch nationalists, the port of Gwadar and the presence of the Chinese are the perfect reason to unite against what they see as a conspiracy by Pakistan and China to displace them and change the demographic balance in their region.

While the Chinese are not necessarily against the Baluch people, they see the CPEC as a political instrument to improve China’s global status, rather than an economic initiative.

China therefore cannot afford for the CPEC to fail and finds itself trapped in a conflict between the Baloch and the Pakistani government that existed before China became involved in the region.

The conflict is getting worse by the day. And the Chinese cannot mediate between the two sides.

China exerts considerable influence on Pakistan, but lacks understanding of democratic needs. While Pakistan is not a perfect democracy, applying an authoritarian approach in Gwadar or Balochistan is unfeasible given the politically aware local population, which resists control by the Pakistani security service.

Both Pakistan and China need to recognize that the Baloch people want more than just development. They need respect, consultation on local projects, a stake in the development process, and assurances that the CPEC is not intended to displace them from their homes.

Over the years, both governments have failed to convince the Baloch that CPEC will have a positive impact on their lives.

Without peace in Balochistan and genuine local support, CPEC will continue to be seen by Pakistan and China as a colonizing project, vulnerable to delays, disruptions and possible failure.

Main presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com