EVs take 56.0% share in Sweden — CUPRA Tavascan debuts

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In August, plug-in electric vehicles took over 56.0% share in Sweden, a year-on-year decrease of 60.1%. BEV share decreased YoY, while PHEV share increased. Total vehicle volume was 19,036 units, down 20% YoY. Tesla Model Y was the best-selling BEV.

In August combined car sales, plug-in electric vehicles accounted for 56.0% in Sweden, with fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) following 35.7%, and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) at 20.3%. These stocks compare YoY with 60.1% combined, with 41.0% BEV, and 19.1% PHEV value.

The decline in the number of electric cars in Sweden is still ongoing and shows no signs of improving.

The three dominant powertrains so far this year are BEVs, PHEVs and gasoline-only vehicles (with shares of around 32%, 23% and 24% respectively – see chart below).

While Sales of gasoline-only vehicles have remained relatively flat year to date, compared to last year (a volume decline of only 3% and 1,200 units), BEV sales are down 21% (and up by more than 14,400 units). PHEVs are the only small bit of good news story here, with sales up a modest 3.9% (and up by 1,450 units).

Looking at it another way, we could say that the decline in total YTD market volume – by 14,118 units – is entirely due to the decline in BEV sales. This isn’t helped by legacy cars raising the prices of their entry-level BEVs over the past two years (e.g. the Peugeot 208 BEV which is twice as expensive as the 208 ICE), just as the recession has hit Sweden and other parts of Europe.

Traditional automakers are still clinging to their old habits: squeezing more economic profit from their old ICE investments, underinvesting in electric cars and instead paying out record profits to shareholders and management bonuses.

Choices, choices… and consequences. Let’s see how many of the traditional automakers will still be viable in 5 years.

Best Selling BEVs

When it comes to car manufacturers with future viability, which brands are currently producing the most popular BEVs in Sweden?

The Tesla Model Y was again the best-seller in August, with 1,104 units registered. The Model Y has only dropped from the top spot 3 times in the past 12 months! In the €40,000 to €50,000 segment, it is apparently still considered a valuable car.

In second place was the Volvo XC40m with 658 units, and in third place was its younger sibling, the Volvo EX30, with 471 units.

Only when a very attractive BEV comes to market, probably at a lower price, will the Tesla Model Y be in danger.

There are no major surprises in the top 20, just normal shifts that are normal in a smaller market, depending on the vagaries of varying batch shipments.

There were three new BEV models that made their debut in August. Perhaps most symbolically, the domestically produced Volvo EX90 has finally arrived after several delays, with an initial delivery of 14 units. These may be demonstrators for now, but customer deliveries are undoubtedly imminent or already underway.

The Volvo EX90 is a BEV version of Volvo’s classic large XC90 boxy SUV, although it does have the option of a 7-seater version. It’s very expensive, currently only starting from SEK 997,000 (€87,500), but there will undoubtedly be more affordable versions in the future. It now joins the Kia EV9 and Volkswagen ID. Buzz as another 7-seater BEV option for large families.

Next up was the Ford Explorer, which we also saw debut in France and Norway in August, following its launch in Germany last month. See that Germany report for a summary of the vehicle. Sweden saw its first 27 units of the Explorer in August, so let’s see what happens next.

Finally, the Cupra Tavascan also made its Swedish debut in August, with 16 units delivered. The Tavascan is based on the Volkswagen Group MEB platform, in a mid-size SUV coupe layout. It’s essentially the Cupra’s version of the Volkswagen ID.5, or the Audi Q4 e-tron Sportback, albeit around 1% longer, at 4,644 mm. The technical specifications and features are similar to its MEB cousins, so it’s decent if not groundbreaking.

Cupra’s brand emphasis is a bit more on “sportiness” compared to Volkswagen, Skoda and Audi, both in the design language and to a lesser extent in the dynamics on the road. Think Cupra Born, compared to Volkswagen ID.3.

Prices for the new Tavascan start at SEK 564,900 (€49,600), slightly higher than the ID.5’s price in Sweden. Its older sibling, the Cupra Born, has proven popular in the country, often ranking around 10th in the BEV charts, so perhaps the Tavascan can achieve similar success.

Now let’s look at the rankings for the past 3 months:

The Tesla Model Y remains very dominant, not matching the sales volume of the three subsequent models combined.

The 2nd through 5th places are closely contested by the Volkswagen ID.4, Volvo EX30, Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40. It is no coincidence that these are all compact or mid-size SUVs/CUVs, by far the most popular vehicle size in Sweden and many other markets.

There are no looming disruptions in the pipeline for the top 20 BEVs – the Volvo EX30 achieved that a few months ago and has now become a permanent fixture in the top 3. However, the Audi Q6 e-tron will relatively successful, already with 107 units in August, after its debut of 66 units in July. The Q6 could squeeze itself to the bottom of the list by the end of this year (depending on production volumes). In the longer term, the Cupra Tavascan could also end up in the top 20, especially if more modest versions improve prices over time.

Prospect

As noted earlier, Sweden’s weak economy (and still fairly high interest rates) aren’t helping the BEV transition, given the big automakers’ habit of overpricing. Q2 GDP was 0.5%, down from 0.9% in Q1.

Inflation is 2.6%, flat from the previous update, and interest rates improved slightly to 3.5% from 3.75%. The manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7 points in August from 49.2 points in July.

Until the affordability of electric cars improves significantly and the economic situation improves, I don’t think we can expect the growth of electric cars in Sweden to be as strong as it was in the 2020-2023 period.

What do you think? Join the discussion in the comments section below.