Red Bull must solve Verstappen’s ‘monster’ riddle, otherwise Norris will pounce | Formula one

SThere are six meetings left of the 2024 Formula 1 season and the race for the world championship will play out in frenetic fashion with two triple-headers pitting Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and McLaren’s Lando Norris against each other for the title.

However, the run-in will not start for another three weeks, a period that could be decisive if the key players fully work towards this final stage. For McLaren this will be a period of fine-tuning, but for Red Bull there is the much more urgent task of finding solutions.

The next round, the US Grand Prix, will take place in Austin on October 20, after an unusual break at the end of the season. However, this fall break, as it is also called, differs from the sport’s traditional summer break, which in reality involves a work break.

During the summer, the shutdown staff will not be allowed to do their work, but the next three weeks are simply a long period between races and the pursuit of a lead in those final laps will be pursued with intensity.

Because the lead-up is so busy, the six races will take place in just eight weeks, and all far from home: Austin in Texas, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Developing on the hoof becomes quite a task. The title contenders must hope that the car they take to the American GP makes a flying start.

Norris enters the intermezzo on a high note. He dominated in Singapore, beating Verstappen by 21 seconds and closing the gap to the world champion to 52 points, with a maximum of 180 (including three sprint races and the point for a fastest lap) still on the table.

It remains a big question: he has to beat the Dutchman by just under nine points per meeting and he has rightly noted that the title is still Verstappen’s to lose. Yet he believes he can do it and McLaren’s form is the reason for that confidence.

After a series of upgrades brought to the Miami GP, the McLaren was revelatory and only continued to improve. It is now the class of the field and has surpassed the Red Bull who guided Verstappen to seven victories in the first ten races.

At this rate, a lot of attention has been paid to their flexible rear wing, which has been declared legal but which they have since voluntarily declared they will no longer use, perhaps indicative of its relative unimportance. The most important part of today’s ground effect cars is the floor, how it channels airflow and interacts with surface aerodynamics. McLaren’s last upgrade paid off here and they’ve been making nothing but profits from it since, so much so that they’ve only made small, limited changes to the car since then.

It’s understood they have another major upgrade package in the works, including a new floor, but have yet to commit to it for fear it could be detrimental, a lesson other teams have learned at great cost.

The floor is so important that it can upset the entire balance of the car, as Red Bull, Aston Martin, Ferrari and Mercedes have discovered. In the case of Mercedes, their purple patch was discontinued mid-season with their floor upgrade, which has now been scrapped altogether in favor of a new version for Austin.

“When you have this kind of performance on track, you always approach things from a cautious development point of view,” said team boss Andrea Stella. McLaren are in a strong position, their package is working and they now have more time to test their upgrade if they need it, putting them at the forefront.

Red Bull, on the other hand, is still struggling with the car that Verstappen has called ‘a monster’. It lacks balance, the front and rear do not work together, making it very difficult to drive. The world champions blame all this squarely on upgrades made since Miami, of which the floor was a fundamental part. Their frustrated team boss, Christian Horner, has described their attempts to resolve the problem as “a vicious circle”.

Verstappen coming second in Singapore was a fantastic result as they expected to struggle at the Marina Bay circuit, but if he is to stop Norris they will need the car to get back up to speed for the run -in. “We now have the best part of the month to work hard and try to get some performance into the car in Austin,” said Horner. “We are 52 points ahead with six races to go. There are still a lot of races, a lot of points on the board, and a lot of racing to be done.”

How they go about it – a whole series of major upgrades or a series of adjustments to the existing package – will soon become clear, but they and Verstappen know that his lead could look very fragile and very fast.

The break will also be a welcome chance for Liam Lawson to settle into his new RB team after being called up to replace Daniel Ricciardo after the Singapore GP. The 22-year-old New Zealander is Red Bull’s reserve driver and is considered a potential replacement for Sergio Pérez next season. He competed for Ricciardo in five races last year when the Australian broke his wrist and performed well.

He deserved his chance, but RB’s treatment of Ricciardo was handled poorly. After Lawson’s promotion was announced, he revealed he had known for two weeks, but in Singapore RB would not comment on whether Ricciardo would leave. The Australian is hugely popular, but because RB delayed the announcement, he didn’t get the proper on-track send-off that many, including the drivers, felt he deserved.