Iraq: Coalition forces’ withdrawal plan faces headwinds amid regional unrest

Shafaq News/ The timeline for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq remains uncertain amid ongoing political and security challenges in the region. Analysts have expressed concerns about the feasibility of meeting the set deadlines given the complex geopolitical landscape.

Important questions, different factors

“These deadlines are not set in stone, but rather represent decisions that can be postponed,” said Haitham Al-Luhaybi, a US-based political analyst. “The key question is whether these decisions will be implemented, which will depend on a variety of factors, including the formation of the next Iraqi government and the political situation in both Iraq and the Middle East.”

Al-Luhaybi explained to Shafaq News that US-Iraq relations are crucial in determining the withdrawal process, stating: “the implementation of the withdrawal agreement depends on the relationship between Iraq and the United States, which is currently be under a democratic government. I don’t know who will rule the White House in the coming years and whether their approach will align with the current direction of disengagement, especially in light of the various political variables.”

Within Iraq, the analyst pointed to the complex relationships between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish forces as a potential stumbling block. “The internal Iraqi situation and the relationship between the Sunni, Shia and Kurdish parties raise questions about whether the current balance will remain or change, and whether (Prime Minister) al-Sudani will remain in power or whether there will be splits and confrontations will take place. , especially in light of the problems within the prevailing coordination framework,” he said.

Security concerns, including the threat posed by ISIS and other groups, also cast doubt on the timeline for the withdrawal. “Will the threats from ISIS and the militias in Iraq end? And what about the impact of the Israeli-Iranian conflict on Iraq?”

Al-Luhaybi asked: “All the above factors actually determine how the foreign forces will withdraw, and not the formal agreements that are concluded under normal circumstances with relative internal and regional security. Therefore, the decision is unlikely to be implemented. but will be postponed and re-extended in light of current circumstances in Iraq and the region.”

Is Iraq ready?

A member of Iraq’s parliamentary Security and Defense Committee has expressed confidence in the country’s security situation, which he says paves the way for a complete withdrawal of foreign troops.

Ali Naeem al-Bandawi, a member of the committee, said that “except for Turkish violations, which are due to political issues and agreements, Iraq’s border security is stable. But in general, Iraqi troops are deployed along the borders of neighboring countries. and within the government.”

“The remnants of ISIS have been reduced to just a few gangs, and Iraqi forces are pursuing them into their hideouts. There were concerns about camps with terrorists and their families, but the military leadership assured us that there is full control over the borders. and necessary precautions and measures have been taken.”

Despite the positive assessments, al-Bandawi stressed the need for Iraq to acquire more advanced weapons, air defense systems and new generation aircraft. “This depends on Iraq’s purchasing power and the response of producing countries to Iraq’s requests,” he said.

New defense strategy

Ali al-Muammari, a security expert, stressed the need to arm Iraqi forces with advanced artillery systems and train them in urban warfare and counter-insurgency tactics. “Iraqi forces must be equipped with modern, computer-controlled artillery to ensure precise targeting,” he said. “In addition, the Iraqi Air Force requires advanced aircraft and surveillance capabilities to gather intelligence on terrorist remnants and criminal gangs.”

Sarmad al-Bayati, another security expert, expressed confidence that the international coalition would provide support to Iraq in the event of a security crisis. However, he stressed the importance of Iraq taking full responsibility for its security. “The decision to withdraw coalition forces is correct and in line with the government’s plan,” he said. “The next step will be to consolidate state control over all weapons.”

Termination of the US-led coalition mission in Iraq

The United States formally announced this last week that the coalition mission in Iraq will end in September 2025, but emphasized that troops will remain in the country as part of an “evolution of the military mission in Iraq.”

“To be clear, the United States is not withdrawing from Iraq,” a senior administration official told reporters. “We are moving toward the kind of productive, long-term security relationships that the United States has with partners around the world.”

The US and Iraq have agreed to a “two-phase transition plan for operations in Iraq,” the official said. “In the first phase, we will conclude the global coalition military mission in Iraq, the Combined Joint Task Force Inherent Resolve, and end the presence of coalition forces in select locations in Iraq, as mutually determined.”

That phase starts this month and ends at the end of September 2025.

The second phase includes an “agreement to enable the coalition to continue supporting anti-ISIS operations in Syria from Iraq… until at least September 2026,” the official said.

“As long as ISIS is defeated, they are not gone,” the official said. “ISIS remains a real threat, even as it has diminished in Iraq and the wider region. Together, the US, Iraq and the coalition remain committed to defeating the ISIS nuclear threat. We intend to remain focused on that important task as we move into the future.”

The official did not specify how many troops — American or coalition allies — would leave Iraq. Reuters previously reported that “hundreds of troops” would leave.

Analysts described the announcement as a “pullback” rather than a total “withdrawal.” Norman Ricklefs, CEO of geopolitical consultancy NAMEA Group, said: “It will be based on the circumstances so that hopefully we won’t see a disaster like we saw when the troops withdrew completely in 2011, leaving a security vacuum that was filled by ISIS. .”

“New Partnership”

The British government has announced it will end its military mission in Iraq as part of the wider Global Coalition against ISIS which is phasing out operations.

“The UK will work closely with our Iraqi partners over the coming months to develop a lasting bilateral relationship, as part of the transition to a new security and defense partnership with Iraq,” a statement from the UK Ministry of Defense said.

“The RAF has also flown more than 10,000 missions impacting more than 1,400 targets, as well as providing critical surveillance and reconnaissance in support of ISF ground operations,” the statement said.

The UK Government praised the professionalism of British personnel who served in Iraq and recognized the bravery and effectiveness of the Iraqi security forces, Peshmerga, and the continued commitment of the Coalition in defeating ISIS.

With the territorial defeat of ISIS in Iraq, Britain will transfer its support to a new bilateral relationship aimed at long-term stability in the country. “Our commitment to the security of Iraq and the wider region remains steadfast,” the statement concluded.

The United States and Iraq have announced that the US-led coalition in the country to fight ISIS will wind down by the end of 2025, but they have left the door open for a long-term military presence.

The joint announcement on Friday did not specify what the future of U.S. forces in Iraq will be, with officials emphasizing that the move represents more of a “transition” than a “withdrawal.”

A senior official from US President Joe Biden’s administration, briefing reporters, said the phase-out would consist of two phases.

The first phase – expected to end in September 2025 – will include “ending the presence of coalition forces in certain locations in Iraq, as mutually determined,” the official said.

In the second phase, the US would continue to operate in Iraq in some capacity “at least until” 2026 to support the ongoing anti-ISIS coalition efforts in Syria.

U.S.-Iraq defense ties would then shift from coalition to “a comprehensive bilateral U.S.-Iraq security relationship,” the official said. They declined to say whether this shift would mean a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces.

“We are not currently in a position to speculate or discuss where exactly we will end up,” the official said.

The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of its so-called global ‘war on terror’ in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, peaking at 170,000 troops in 2007.

Washington withdrew most US troops from Iraq in 2011.

However, US President Barack Obama’s administration redeployed troops to the country in 2014, as ISIS overran large parts of Iraq and Syria.

While ISIS continues to exist, the group lost control of its last bits of territory in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019.

Then in 2021, the Biden administration ended what it described as a U.S. “combat mission” in Iraq, with the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops in the country transitioning to an “advisory role.”

Talks on a further troop withdrawal began in January and included Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as well as top officials from both the Iraqi armed forces and the US-led coalition.

The continued presence of US troops in Iraq is a political thorn in Sudan’s side and has long been opposed by influential parts of the government.

Bases housing American soldiers have been under attack for years by Iran-affiliated factions.

These attacks increased in the early months of Israel’s war in Gaza, which began in October 2023 but have since decreased in frequency.