Will this election be decided by non-voters?

Who is this low propensity voter? According to a poll conducted in Michigan from September 13 to 23 by Data for Progress, a progressive think tank and polling firm (toplines here; crosstabs here), the irregular voter is more likely than not to be white (51 percent) and to work full-time (51 percent) or part-time (9 percent). If our low propensity voter isn’t working, it’s probably because he’s retired (14 percent) or a student (10 percent). He is most likely politically independent (56 percent). Not voting in 2020 puts him among them about a third of eligible voters who did not do so, even though turnout in 2020 was higher than in any election since 1900, according to the Pew Research Center. Turnout could well be higher in 2024. That’s why Trump’s campaign is stalking this group.

A word about election turnout. Since the beginning of this century, Republicans have been through various… confiscation schemesdevoted themselves to reducing it. These efforts have met with some success in the Southbut nationally they have been largely self-defeating. In fact, the Republican Party has so thoroughly angered its target audiences (especially Republicans). African Americans And students) which largely accounts for the turnout for these cohorts increased. All good little Democrats support high voter participation, and so do I. But it is not necessarily a sign that our republic is in good health. You may have noticed that ours isn’t exactly one Era of good feelingsand historically, I’m sorry to report, high turnout often coincides with eras of bad feelings.

In the United States, turnout among eligible voters, which does not yet include women or, practically speaking, African Americans, is reached its highest point ever between 1840 and 1900 (70-80 percent; sometimes higher). That era, as you will remember from high school history class, included the divisive period leading up to the Civil War; the Civil War itself; and the bleak aftermath of the war, four decades marked by three presidential assassinations; the cowardly abandonment of reconstruction; the rise of economic trusts; the widespread acceptance of eugenics and social Darwinism; the violent suppression of trade unions; and a level of political corruption that would make Robert Menendez blush. If you think things are bad today, they were worse then.