Fantasy Basketball: How Much Should Managers Take into the Summer Olympics?

While there are many different stories about who first coined this phrase, there is no shortage of people who believe that “your best asset is your availability.” That’s especially true in fantasy basketball, as a player with elite per-game production may not be worth much if he’s constantly on the shelf due to injury. The 2024-2025 season is a ‘special’ season because it comes just before an Olympic year.

So, is the longer player calendar of “season-Olympics-season” something fantasy managers should take into account when drafting their teams? Frankly, that depends more on the player in question than on the assumption that every player who competed in Paris is at increased risk of missing time. For this column, I looked back at the Rio (2016) and Tokyo (2020) Olympics to see if anything stood out in terms of player production and availability.

Top 200 Rankings: Basketball monster

2016 Olympic Games in Rio

Thirty-seven players at the Rio Olympics played in the NBA the previous season, with seven playing 60 games or fewer in 2015-2016. The player with the highest profile of the six in terms of fantasy value was Kyrie Irving, who played in 53 games for the Cavaliers. The other six were Joffrey Lauvergne (France), Manu Ginobili (Argentina), Cristiano Felicio, Marcelo Huertas, Nene (Brazil) and Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania). In terms of fantasy value per game, Irving’s 2015–16 season ranked just outside the top 50 in 9-cat formats and the top 100 overall. But in Kyrie’s case, it’s essential to consider when the games were missed, rather than simply using the absences as a reason to drop him on draft boards.

Irving was injured during Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals and subsequently underwent surgery to repair a fractured left kneecap. He only made his debut in 2015/16 on December 20. From then on, he only missed five games, the last of which was Cleveland’s regular game. season finale against Detroit. In 2016-17, Irving played in 72 games and was a top 25 fantasy player both per game and in total value. Valanciunas saw the most NBA action in 2016-17 of the other six players listed. He played in 80 games and finished in the top 70 fantasy players (per game and total). Ginobili, in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career, played 69 games in 2016-17 and finished outside the top 175 in per-game value, along with Nene (67 games), Felicio (66) and Lauvergne (70). As for Huertas, he only played in 23 games after playing 53 the season before, and played even less of a role in fantasy basketball than that quartet.

In total, 29 of the 37 Olympians in Rio played in at least 65 games the following NBA season, with Valanciunas, Patty Mills and Joe Ingles (Australia), Rudy Gobert (France), DeAndre Jordan (USA) and Bojan Bogdanovic (Croatia) with at least 80 games. As for the United States, only Kevin Durant (62 games) and Kyle Lowry (60) did not play at least 70 games during the 2016/2017 season. Twenty of the 37 were top 200 fantasy players in both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, with Irving and Ginobili being the only ones to have a season of fewer than 60 games played (2015-16 for both).

2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo

The 2020 Olympics are a completely different matter as they were played in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As for the NBA, the 2020-2021 regular season was shortened to 72 games because the previous season didn’t wrap up until August. The result was that it didn’t take much for a player to fail to reach 60 games, let alone the 65-game threshold that so many fantasy managers hold in high regard. Forty-seven Olympians played in the NBA during the 2020-2021 season, with only 16 appearing in at least 60 games. Gobert led the way, playing 71 of a possible 72 for the Jazz.

With the NBA returning to a “normal” calendar/schedule for the 2021-2022 campaign, it was fair to wonder if the Tokyo Olympics would impact player availability. It would be very unfair to lay the blame on a two-week event, especially given the scheduling chaos during those two seasons. But it is interesting that of the 47 who played in Tokyo, 19 played 60 games or more during the 2021-2022 season. That group included Gobert (66 games), Evan Fournier (France; 80), Devin Booker (USA; 68), Keldon Johnson (USA; 75) and Jayson Tatum (USA; 76).

In terms of 9 cats per game value, Tatum had the best fantasy season of any Olympian playing in Tokyo, finishing as a top 5 player. Kevin Durant (55 games) finished the 2021-2022 season just outside the first-round bracket for standard 12-team leagues, while Booker was a top 20 player. Among those representing other countries, Gobert finished just inside the top 25, while Luka Doncic (65; Slovenia) was a few places behind the then jazz center. If you were to score turnovers, Doncic was almost a first-round pick in 12-team leagues.

The Tokyo Olympics and their impact on fantasy basketball have been much more difficult to assess due to the scheduling changes forced by COVID-19. The drop in availability likely had more to do with the previous two seasons, starting with the four-month break and Orlando’s “bubble,” than with athletes spending more than two weeks in relative isolation representing their respective countries. So Tokyo isn’t the best benchmark to use when considering the potential impact playing in Paris could have on players in 2024-2025.

2024 Olympic Games in Paris

Fifty-four players in Paris played in the NBA this summer during the 2023-2024 season, with 30 of them finishing in the top 200 fantasy players. In terms of availability, 19 appeared in 60 games or less, some due to injury, while others were not committed to playing in their respective team’s rotation every night.

The most famous of those 19 was Joel Embiid, whose knee injury in late January sidelined him until April 2. The 2023 NBA MVP played just 39 games for the 76ers last season and didn’t look healthy during the team’s first-round playoff series against the Knicks. There were also questions about his fitness during the Olympics, but Embiid came through with a clean bill of health and a gold medal. Given his overall injury history, it’s understandable that some fantasy managers landing a top-5 pick will actively avoid drafting Embiid.

Another Olympian who played fewer than 60 games last season was Jamal Murray (Canada), who played in 59 games for the Nuggets. His longest stint on the sidelines came in November, with the point guard missing 11 games (and two more after his initial return on November 29) due to a hamstring injury. The ankle injury in March that sidelined Murray for seven games may be more concerning from a timing perspective. Although he didn’t miss a game after returning on April 6, the Nuggets guard didn’t appear to be at his best during the Paris Olympics. Even with external concerns about Murray’s health, that didn’t stop the Nuggets from signing him to a lucrative extension in September.

Also notable regarding the availability of 2024 Olympians last season: 22 played at least 70 games. Three, Josh Giddey (Australia; 80), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada; 75) and Lu Dort (Canada; 79), were members of the Oklahoma City Thunder, with the former traded to the Bulls this summer. Among the other 19 on that list were Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece; 73 games), Victor Wembanyama (France; 71), Anthony Davis (USA; 76) and LeBron James (USA; 71).

While LeBron may be approaching 40 years old, his ADP has remained stable compared to the 2023-2024 season. In addition to Embiid and Murray, there could be some concern for Tyrese Haliburton, who dealt with a hamstring injury during the season that likely returned too early, and another leg problem during the Olympics. He took on his usual role in Indiana’s preseason opener on Tuesday, but it will be interesting to see how fantasy managers approach Haliburton in drafts.

Conclusion

What conclusion can we draw from the last two Olympic men’s basketball competitions and their impact on fantasy basketball? While the free time is welcome, there doesn’t seem to be much evidence to suggest that play affects availability. As we all know, injuries happen regardless of whether a player is ‘well rested’ or not. A more meaningful predictor would be if a player makes it clear that he has priorities be healthy for the postseason about individual awards that only take into account the regular season and their overall injury history.