How the GOP is helping Trump with less to lose in Philadelphia

This presidential election is a game of margins.

Gone are the days when candidates stayed focused on areas where they are strong and cut their losses elsewhere. This year in Pennsylvania, a coveted swing state where polls show the race is nearly even, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to play a role everywhere: take a few voters here and pick up a few there .

The go-anywhere strategy means Trump, his campaign and the Republican Party see their path to winning Pennsylvania passing through an unlikely place: deep blue Philadelphia.

Although Philly is a liberal bastion where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 7-1, Republicans in the city say the Trump campaign and associated groups have a stronger presence here this year than in 2016 or 2020.

Earlier this year, Trump held a rally at Temple University, the first he ever held in Philadelphia. His campaign has an office in the city and has deployed door knockers in predominantly Democratic neighborhoods, while half a dozen allied groups flood residents of all political persuasions with pro-Trump and anti-Harris mail.

» READ MORE: Six trends that could decide Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump

Josh Novotney, a Republican consultant and neighborhood leader in the city, said he hasn’t seen a GOP presidential operation in the city as sophisticated since 2004. That was the year former President George W. Bush ran for re-election and won a larger share. of Philadelphia voters than any Republican presidential candidate since.

“They’re trying to leave no corner of the electorate untouched,” Novotney said of the Trump campaign.

No one is under any illusions: Harris will win Philadelphia by a wide margin. The Republican-leaning apparatus in the city does not come close to the size or scope of the Democratic apparatus, and the Trump campaign has outsourced much of its campaign to outside groups, such as billionaire Elon’s. Musk.

» READ MORE: Elon Musk donated nearly $75 million to his America PAC last quarter. It is responsible for mobilizing Trump voters in Pa.

But Republicans say if Trump can gain even a few points in populous Philadelphia — losing a little less and picking up a few thousand votes — it could be decisive in an election that could hinge on Pennsylvania.

Supporters of Trump believe he is making progress in the city, despite having vilified the city as a place where “bad things happen.” Polls show him performing better nationally among black and Latino voters, especially men, than he did four years ago. Two major unions — with thousands of members in Philadelphia — that have generally supported Democrats declined to endorse any candidate this year.

» READ MORE: In deep blue Philly, working-class voters are shifting toward Republicans

And Democrats lost ground among the city’s working-class voters between 2016 and 2020. Some voted for Trump and others didn’t vote at all, and fewer voters showing up in blue strongholds is actually a win for Republicans. Voters who were bombarded with negative advertising about Harris could decide not to vote.

“No doubt we are playing on their turf,” Trump campaign political director James Blair told the NOTUS news organization. “We don’t expect to win all the people, but if we shave off a few points here, a few points there, the net impact on our chances of winning is very significant.”

Democrats of color are skeptical.

“Trump said ‘bad things are happening in Philly,’ and bad things will happen again in Philly for him,” said former U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, chairman of the Democratic City Committee. “He needs to find another place to go.”

The Republican party thinks the reporting is on its side

Democrats have governed Philadelphia for generations, and the party’s presidential candidates have won the city by huge margins. In 2020, President Joe Biden won 81% of the vote in the city — while narrowly winning the state. Former President Barack Obama won 85% of the vote in Philly in 2012.

Still, a Trump campaign official, who requested anonymity to discuss campaign tactics, said the city is a “major target.” The campaign says it will have a stronger presence in major cities like Philadelphia and Detroit this year, with the goal of narrowing Harris’ margins, though the campaign won’t specify how many staffers are in the area.

The Republican push for voters in Philadelphia and other major cities comes as Democrats worry Harris is losing support among black men, who make up a large part of Philly’s electorate. Harris’ campaign has deployed Obama, the nation’s first black president, as its top surrogate and released policies targeting black men.

Republicans say they are also trying to boost support among Philadelphia’s white working class, including union members who traditionally voted for Democrats.

» READ MORE: This union leader is the kind of voter who could influence the presidential race

“People are just getting exhausted by the economy,” said Mike Bresnan, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters Local 22, which represents Philadelphia firefighters, paramedics and EMTs.

The national firefighters union was the first to back Biden in 2020, but the local chapter, led by Bresnan, controversially backed Trump. A group of members unsuccessfully sought Bresnan’s ouster.

This year, the national union announced that it will not support either presidential candidate. Neither do the locals.

Still, Bresnan said, “I see a lot of signs of Trump.”

To woo urban voters, the Trump campaign is pushing on issues like inflation and crime that are particularly prevalent in cities and among working-class voters, the campaign official said. Violent crime rates in Philadelphia have fallen since their post-pandemic peak, and the city’s homicide rate has fallen dramatically this year. Yet much of the reporting focuses on public safety.

» READ MORE: Philly officials are criticizing Kamala Harris’ campaign for overlooking their role in winning Pennsylvania

For example, the state’s Republican Party recently sent a mailer to voters in Philadelphia that attacked Harris’ record as California’s attorney general and described Trump as the candidate who would bring “security and peace.”

Allied groups that support Trump are using similar messages – largely negative. The effect could be to dissuade voters in the city from voting for Harris even if they don’t vote for Trump.

A new super PAC called Securing American Greatness, led by a former top Trump adviser, sent an email to Philadelphia voters this month describing Harris as “soft on crime” and saying she was “getting criminals out of jail.” would let’.

The question is: will they vote?

Trump’s ability to make gains in the city could depend on which voters are least likely to vote. That means the results in Philly could be thanks to get-out-the-vote efforts, which are ramping up in the final few weeks of the election season.

Harris’ campaign has its own turnout operation in the city. She also has thousands of Democratic City Committee members behind her, as well as hundreds of door knockers deployed by some of the most politically powerful unions in the state.

The Republican operation will be smaller in Philadelphia. Much of the turnout is done by outside groups, such as Musk’s America PAC, which pays people to refer registered voters to a petition and focuses mainly on Pennsylvania.

» READ MORE: Elon Musk spoke in Delco on Thursday about crime and immigration as his pro-Trump efforts ramp up in Pennsylvania

However, some Republicans have complained about the relatively new group’s effectiveness, arguing that sophisticated recruitment operations take years to develop, not a few months. Others have complained that Musk’s sometimes volatile leadership style threatens to derail the effort.

GOP precinct leaders in Philadelphia say the Trump campaign itself has been more active in getting out the vote this year than in the past. Pete Smith, precinct leader in Northeast Philadelphia, said the campaign is working with local Republicans to recruit volunteers and provide support on Election Day. Precinct leaders said they are sharing current voter registration information with the Trump campaign so it can effectively target voters for turnout.

“The pressure is really strong,” Smith said. “There has been tremendous support from the Trump campaign.”

Matthew Wolfe, a neighborhood leader in West Philadelphia, said the campaign’s volunteer program is popular with the grassroots. He said the state and local committees are closely tied to the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, which was “not necessarily a given” in the past.

“I think we’re going to surpass what (Trump) did four years ago in Philadelphia,” Wolfe said.

Smith said Republicans are clear about what is possible: Incremental growth, he said, would be considered a win.

“We’re not going to win Philadelphia,” he said. “But we’re going to soften the blow and help Pennsylvania carry it.”

Researcher writer Julia Terruso contributed to this article.