Rates are likely to remain high even if Harris wins. But Trump could send them into the stratosphere. (Video)

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One of Donald Trump’s most notable achievements during his time in office was the way he reoriented the political landscape around trade and tariffs, ushering in a new era of higher tariffs that have persisted and even lightened throughout the Biden administration grown.

The decision facing voters in this election is whether he will be able to overturn the status quo again.

Vice President Kamala Harris and her aides have provided few details about her trade plans, but if she makes any moves at all, she is widely expected to maintain the new standard of higher duties created by Trump — with a possible focus on new duties. about ‘strategic sectors’.

Trump, on the other hand, is promising a new wave in the ballpark of ten times the level of tariffs he imposed in his first term, experts say, with a plan that includes across-the-board tariffs of 10% or higher and 60 percent. % tariffs on China.

He also promises things like a Trump Reciprocal Trade Act that would automatically impose tariffs on countries in response to their duties to the US.

The effects would be felt across American life, even if Trump delivers on only a fraction of his promises.

One thing that appears to be off the table, at least for now, is a near-term reduction in excise taxes.

“Cutting rates is not an option for anyone,” said Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the International Institute for Management Development, in a recent interview.

Baldwin added to Trump’s promises that “I think we should take him at his word,” noting that he has the power to unilaterally lift his tariff regime.

For Harris, there is a good chance that the ‘new normal’ will be maintained

During his time in office, then-President Trump imposed tariffs on a wide range of products from China, as well as on items such as aluminum and steel products from Europe and Asia.

It meant about $80 billion in new tariffs that companies pay at U.S. ports of entry.

The Biden administration largely left Trump’s tariffs in place and even announced new duties in May on “strategic sectors” such as semiconductors and electric vehicles.

Harris is expected to continue this broad approach and has unveiled a reindustrialization strategy aimed at boosting specific sectors in the US – from aerospace to AI and from quantum computing to critical minerals.

Her focus was not on new tariffs at campaign stops, but on government stimulus for certain industries, similar to Biden-era achievements like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act focused on semiconductors.

Biden and Harris’ aides have long pointed to a recent boom in U.S. factory construction as evidence that their approach is working.

Harris has also been critical of Trump’s plans for new tariffs, comparing them to a national sales tax that she said would add more than $3,900 to a typical household budget because companies that pay the tariffs pass the tariff taxes on to end users.

Read more: Trump vs. Harris: 4 Ways the Next President Could Impact Your Bank Accounts

But the politics surrounding tariffs could hinder any efforts to roll back existing duties, which are particularly popular in certain swing states.

“If she wins, she won’t win because of California,” William Alan Reinsch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent interview, citing Harris’ home state, where tariffs are less popular.

“She will win because of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and the trade policies there haven’t changed,” he added, noting broad support for existing taxes on things like steel, aluminum and cars.

“She brings a different mentality,” he said of her California background and the selection of Tim Walz from farm-dependent Minnesota, which was hit hard in Trump’s first round of tariffs.

“But it doesn’t change politics.”

For Trump, the question is whether the courts will block him

When it comes to Trump, the former president has a track record of delivering on his trade promises and promising what would be historic duties.

Trump calls tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and has even launched things like 2,000% tariffs on cars and said his goal in some areas is to implement “the highest tariff in history.”

Perhaps the only question, now that Trump is likely to be able to keep Congress out of the loop and pursue his policies unilaterally, is whether the courts will intervene.

Read more: What are tariffs and how do they affect you?

A recent analysis by Reinsch and Warren Maruyama, former general counsel at the U.S. Trade Representative, laid out the extensive powers that allow presidents to impose tariffs on their own.

Another analysis from Alan Wolff of the Peterson Institute for International Economics warned against underestimating Trump’s tariffs. He pointed to the unilateral powers a president enjoys and the unprecedented levels that tariffs can reach.

The effect “on the economy, on businesses and on individual consumers and employees would literally be incalculable,” he wrote.

That leaves the courts, where previous challenges to Trump’s tariffs have been unsuccessful. That could change depending on how vigorously Trump tried to pursue a potential second-term agenda.

“Whatever he does, he will be sued,” Reinsch said, adding that perhaps the easiest legal path for Trump would be to start with his plan for 60% tariffs on China.

“You declare a state of emergency and you use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act,” he noted, adding, “It works better when there is a targeted offender.”

Baldwin added that political repercussions could be the only brake on Trump’s agenda.

He predicts that those 60% tariffs on China alone could lead to “a rise in inflation, especially for the middle class. It makes the last few years seem like a small thing.”

And that’s before China retaliates, he added, which “could do a lot of damage.”

Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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