Trump nach US-Wahlsieg prepare für Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus

After winning the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump has won the Run. If you follow a fierce attack on the Wahlkampf, the Candidates are the best time to get kopf and kopf. The big interests of the congressmen may take longer than ever, but the first results will be some of the Republikaner expressions. In the course of the market, the market is at its best, if there is some kind of “government”, then there are no fixed parties with the presidents and both members of Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate – controlled.

Because we have been dealing with one of the most volatile developments with the development of Donald Trump, the financial market has undergone a risky development. We will be there in the Zwischenzeit as well as a “Flight in the Sicherheit”. Promoting will be done when it comes to making money with the US dollar (under a growing economy and a fiscal policy economy, which will cause more inflation). When gold is used, geopolitical risks are taken. The reaction to market developments is one of the strong consequences of this month of September. I think there are a “roten Durchmarschs” rights with another Konsolidierung. Was active, treasures wer smaller objects as attractive as one. In the fall, prices can be halted in our portfolios with some offensive options positions.

If you are looking for a robust US-Wirtschaft, you can set up the market and use the market as a tactical opportunity to diversify or increase risks, so that the market generally works well and the month continues as a rule that well works.

WAS DAS ERGEBNIS BEDEUTEN KÖNNTE

In our analysis of Donald Trump’s plans, one could take one of the political positions:

Fiscalpolitische Vorhaben: Verlängerung der Steuersenkungen?

• Donald Trump has gone through major changes, a great deal of control and deregulation. It seems that the US government has won over the US economy so that all the smaller companies in the energy and financial sectors can operate. After the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the US national debt to reach US$7.5 billion by 2035. If the US national debt is covered by some point in time, it will exceed 120% of gross domestic products (GDP).
• If you have the potential to exit the credit markets, the corporate offices will no longer be funded if Republicans gain control of Congress. If you want to see the status of the dollar in the US financial and trading sector, there is a negative market reaction to a fiscal financial benefit.
• A major fiscal policy – together with higher debts, a stricter einwanderungspolitik and a lockerung of written documents – will benefit inflation. In response to the American nut bank in the monetary policy that was concluded in Germany, the dollar was worth it.

Zölle and trade policy: Verhandlingstaktik or Realität?

• Donald Trump thought a 20% pause on all US imports would result in a 60 to 100% check on Chinese products. While the Zölle-tatsächlich were increased, other Volkswirtschaften could expand and continue a trade conflict, pushing the US into the trap of recession.
• We can use more regional near- and on-site production to diversify our production and supply chains. Dieser Schritt can be negative about his bilanzen broadcast.
• Higher areas could be taxed in Europe and the Schwellenländern. Dies gilded insondere voor de Solche, die grim vom US-Markt abhängig sind, z. B. Hersteller von Luxusgütern, Autos, Luftfahrzeugen und Stahl. Dagegen can obtain value titles with the reach, financial and additional infrastructure in a single profitable venture. A great potential of achievements in the performance and sales sector of the sector and the themes that ensure that the regions navigate well, is our attention to an active management of management.

Geopolitics: The Rückkehr des “Dealmakers”

• The geopolitical environment is becoming a German change under Donald Trump. We explore a more aggressive attack on China and halt a military confrontation with Iran, causing an escalation of post-war conflicts.
• I think the Ukraine-Krieg crisis ended when Trump had an affair with Russian President Putin. An end to these conflicts can get a new price on the next market, when Russia has an official function on the market. Europe must have continued its military operations, but it was still a higher debt burden and a few more productive production of Steuereinnahmen that carried the war.
• Since there are many mutual ties with their own European Ländern, it may be that the import of the Wirtschaftswachstum in Europe is taxable.

Money policy: Is the Zentralbank out of place?

• As the Federal Reserve (Fed) suspends funding from the financial markets, Donald Trump is taking notice of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and will now appear in the form of commentary. You can increase fear of the Fed by following the trend of international dollar formation (de-dollarization). The risk premium for the US authorities may be at a higher level if the international Absatz boats come under new US government sanctions.
• Davon takes advantage of his advantages when he wins gold with traditional defensive traits – against the Swiss Francs and the Japanese Yen.
• In the U.S. Treasury bond market, U.S. Treasury bonds could be used as the long-awaited sense of the word. There are slight differences in the display in the US and in other countries of the world that are taxed at the dollar rate. Days of the notion of trade and substances from the perspective of monetary policy and economic profitability.

Klimapolitik: Wässerung der Ziele?

• Jede Schwächung of the US commitments at the end of the climawalks of a Trump-Präsidentschaft that has supported the Chinese bestreben, a prosperous role in climazogen technology. The Aktienmark would have received a declaration from President Bidens to circumvent the Inflation Reduction Act, because there has been a huge amount of investment in poor energy sources.
• Most Republican rulers of the American states will benefit from the gains made by the American government now that they have become more moderate. A revival of institutions was now one of the results of the Republican party. A power outage of the institutions can lead to energy damage in the region – which is gold plated for international companies, which in this region ends up on the American market.

FOKUS AUF MARKTCANCEN BEI WAHLBEZOGENEN SCHWANKUNGEN

The research on a purebred description of the Wahlausgang lasts the Aktienmarken that will be carried out later. These could put an end to inflation in the last month of inflation and allow inflation to see a healthier landing for the US economy. The S&P 500 index is stable in the arrangement, if the uncertainty in the US price will cause a small recession, and there will be a certain trend.

In my current environment I see more possibilities, which can be clearly seen:

• If you want to see a Spielraum for a longer engellegt, you can use the technology on the US-Aktienmarkt, when the US-Wirtschaft has a weiche Landung. The position of the US trading market is so high that it will no longer last for years, and strong growth in the weight of stock prices – if the weight of a stock portfolio in the portfolio can no longer provide a market capitalization that can bring diversification and profit, if there is a positive convergence of the market. One of the ‘laissez-faire’-pragte Präsidentschaft Trumps that could handle Fusionen and umbrella companies was small market capitalization technology companies from zugutekommen.
• If the Gold Prize reaches a new high over the years, fear may no longer exist. Unterstützt will die by a large number of private investors and the central banks of the Schwellenlanden in an Umfeld who take geopolitical risks, impressed by the strong consequences of a trade conflict at the Verschärfung der Zölle.
• In the form of the form it is a fact that it has become, while the US-Wachstum is supported by the enhanced state guarantee. Larger Haushaltsdefizite Bergen are more likely to be affected by the weather problems associated with longer journeys and are more likely to experience a steeper US Rendite Curve (“bear steepening”). If the risks are higher, the market can put a money policy stop to the Fed. The US dollar would continue to strengthen in this situation. The volatile market in the market can look forward to the market that the new congresswomen chart at a later stage of the market. Keep in mind that you will have to take a tactical course of action in the future for the duration of the sin.
• In the US you see opportunities in Britain, where the Wahlrisiko vorüber, and British state support will be expanded with a high-quality duration. The problem is that the heartbeat has disappeared from the Schwelllanden.
• While the Fed held up one of Trump’s presidents in a matter of weeks, while the other countries might be able to make other US dollars with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in the US dollar.

A different story would mean the end of the Wahlen. Jetzt, ergebnisse cannot be like this, the market forces will continue to improve as the Wirtschaft and the Zinsentwicklung-konzentrieren. If all goes well, what is important for most people is that the volatility of the company is increasingly investing and diversifying. We have been concerned that a rebalancing might take place.

Von Greg Hirt, Global CIO Multi Asset, Michael Krautzberger, Global CIO Fixed Income, Virginie Maisonneuve, Global CIO Equities at Allianz Global Investors

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