Goldpreis: Will you come to that uber-raschende Wende?

The gold sales of commercial companies in the US terminology market find this on the market höchsten Stand for three years. Will you come with the Gold Prize Rücksetzer?

Gold price continues to rise

Gold blooms. However, in practically identical German media, the excesses of the striking Kurschwelle will be extensively discussed. Nun hat der Goldpreis im US-Futures-Handel sechs Tag in Folge oberhalb of 2,500 US-Dollar geschlossen.

If Friday has no good mood. The speech of Fed President Jerome Powell towards the Central Bank Meetings in Jackson Hole which has the Wollende Echo and the Wall Street reformerrufen.

The Aktien indices stretch and the old rule, by Powell a German signal turned out to be a sentence in the hinterland of September. If you at the moment you start working, there is work. Gleichzeitig erklarte is, the US economy was solid. The idea is that there are more and more Wachstumsbedenken of Investoren aus.

Auch der Goldpreis alles am Freitag noch einmal deutlich zu. I have put an end to the Monat margin recognition in the American Gold-Futures-Trading niece (Goldreporterberichtete). Days of the Euro-Gold Prize with the new US dollar (entsprechend van de Zinserwartungen) now presently available.

CoT data

During the analysis, the week in gold trading and the COMEX was divided, a picture of the low gold market on the market. This will be done on the active CoT data with the positions of the major trading groups in the trading with Gold Futures as of August 20, 2024.

Here you can see what a few experts in all trades were in the last century. So, after all, the Net Short Position of “Commercials” (the Großbanken) is only 8 Prozent on 316,506 contracts. More information and the explosives may take longer. Now we can see that we will see the latest status for the new trading group since January 5, 2021.

According to the data, it will be possible with the Net Long Position or “Großen Spekulanten” a beef 9 Prozent nach oben auf 291.253 Contract. You can use the net value of the “Managed Money” (Hedge Fund, Investment Funds) for 8 Prozent on 193,305 contracts.

Outstanding interest

Währenddessen nahm der Open Interest per vergangenem Dienstag noch een inmal 5 Prozent zu auf 532.867 Kontrakte. A trading schluss in the Freitag that opened the bulk of gold contracts for the COMEX has reached 0.8 percent on 528,638 contracts. Im Vorwochenvergleich (Freitag bis Freitag) goes with the Open Interest um 0.4 Prozent rauf.

Gold Options

As a result, the open interest in gold options trading increased by 4.7 percent last week on 1,223,719 options. The put/call ratio is 0.582 (previous: 0.552). If all goes well, there are laws that offer more options on a fallen gold price. Then, out of 100 put options, there will be 172 call options (previous week: 181). In general, you see that you have a high chance of gold price optimism in gold options trading.

Gold price development

The gold price was paid on the trading basis of the US Futures (these monthly contracts) at 2,548.70 US dollars per month. Dammit it was worth it for your service day without further benefit (USD 2,550.60). Der Wochenverlauf said that it is first the strong Kursanstieg am Freitag (+1.3 Prozent) the Wochengewinn sicherte.

COMEX Gold Bearing

Underdessen are gold best in the COMEX Treasuries that are in the Vorwoche, an amount of 240,000 Unit of 17.25 Million Unzen (Vorwoche: -230,000). You have been given the chance to obtain a gold price that qualifies for an amount of 150,000 for an amount of 9.46 million dollars (all run).

With an Open Interest of 532,867 trading contracts Trader End of the past trading week in total 53,286,700 Ounces of Gold in the form of Standard Futures (100 Ounces per contract). While the Gold Futures Trading and the COMEX war are now only 32 percent of the stock markets covered (previous: 33 %).

Postage costs

This substantiation is possible because there is a judicial investigation, which is now a brute of the future-oriented developments that can be physically processed. That is, at the end of the contract month the parties close their positions largely by comparison. Whoever is in advance can cast a man in a different light.

So reports the Börsenaufsicht CFTC for the Kontraktmonat August nun 22.105 Anträge auf physische Auslieferung von Gold. Damit kamen innerhalb einer Woche 596 hinzu (Vorwoche: +4.328).

Zum Vergleich: We are together with 3,759 “delivery messages”. Dagegen files im bisherigen Rekordmonat (June 2020) Händler 55.102-mal auf fysislieferung des as Futures gehandelten Goldes.

Gold in China

In the past months, the price drops in China are working out in detail on the international gold course. As a result, sleep is drawn from the price discovery. On Thursday at 2:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. Berlin; 2:30 a.m. New York), the gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is listed at 573.01 yuan per gram. This period of gold price in Shanghai costs 80.72 US dollars or 2,510 US dollars per ounce.

At the same time, Feinunze Gold costs 2,505 US dollars on the European spot market (FOREX). If all goes well, gold is mined in China with an increasingly higher value on the international rate (+5 US dollars; previous: +26 USD). Dagegen could generate an amount of 90 US dollars in the course of the month.

Gold Price Outlook

Comes with the Futures-Positionen der Commercials. Who knows, see the time of the high position and the previous trading group on January 5, 2021. Damals were es 320.923 Kontrakte. Heute stehen net umgerechnet 984 Tonnen Gold auf der Verkaufsliste, seinerzeit were implied 998 Tonnen.

Also at the peak of March 2022 (306,946 contracts) went from the Goldpreis to the first time in the Knee. And at the end of January 2023 (180,554 contracts) this system will appear in the abgeschwächter form. The following graph illustrates this aspect.

This coming week the closing dates at the COMEX are set. The service is a trading day for September options and on Wednesday the August contract was traded for the last time in a deal with Gold Futures.

The Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Rücksetzers in de kommenden Handelstagen ist unserer Einschätzung nach deutlich erhöht.