Valneva SE (from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH): Buy

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Original research: Valneva SE – by First Berlin Equity Research GmbH

23.09.2024 / 15:45 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a survey, broadcast by EQS News – a service of EQS

Group AG.

The publisher is solely responsible for the content of this research.

the results of this research do not constitute investment advice or a

invitation to conduct certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Valneva SE

Company name: Valneva SE

ISIN code: FR0004056851

Reason for the investigation: Capital increase

Recommendation: Buy

from: 23.09.2024

Target price: EUR 7.70

Target price at sight of: 12 months

Last review change: –

Analyst: Simon Scholes

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Valneva SE

(ISIN: FR0004056851). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and

lowered the price target from EUR 8.60 to EUR 7.70.

Abstract:

At the end of June, Valneva had EUR 131 million in cash and cash equivalents. Cash burn

will be lower in H2/24 than in the first six months due to the

Completion in the spring of Valneva’s contributions to the VLA15 Lyme

vaccine development collaboration with Pfizer. However, sustainable free

Cash flow is unlikely until revenue, milestones and royalties come in.

coming soon after the launch (subject to approval) of VLA15 in 2027. Our

An earlier investigation dated August 20 showed that there was a cash position of 10 million euros at the end of the year.

2026. In August 2023, Valneva announced a doubling of its outstanding debt

its main creditors, DeerField and OrbiMed, up to USD200m. In March 2024

the interest-only period on the first tranche of USD 100 million was extended from July

2024 to January 2026. The second tranche of USD 100 million is interest-bearing only until

Q1/27 Given the increase in debt and the prospect of substantial

depletion of its cash position in the next 27 months, it was always

it is possible that Valneva would try to raise new equity. The capital

The capital increase was completed on September 13 and generated gross proceeds of EUR 61 million.

offers Valneva the flexibility to invest in its chikungunya,

shigella, zika and preclinical R&D projects before free cash flow changes

positive after the launch of the Lyme vaccine. We now predict Valneva’s

At the end of 2026, the cash position amounts to EUR 64 million, and therefore we believe the capital increase has been successful.

eliminated any cash requirement prior to the launch of the Lyme vaccine. This

means investors will capture the full potential of the expected positive Lyme outbreak

data on phase 3 of the vaccine (expected end of 2025), regulatory approval and launch.

We have lowered our price target from EUR 8.60 to EUR 7.70 to reflect the dilution

caused by the problem. However, we reiterate our Buy Advice, as we

I think Valneva stock is very undervalued relative to the prospects of both

for the existing commercial vaccine portfolio and pipeline, above

all VLA15.

First Berlin Equity Research has issued a research update for Valneva SE (ISIN:

FR0004056851) was published. Analyst Simon Scholes judged

BUY company and buy the price from EUR 8.60 to EUR 7.70.

Summary:

Valneva versügte Ende Juni über liquide Mittel in Höhe von EUR131 Mio. Der

Cashburn continued in H2/24 in the overview of the most recent Monaten niedriger

ausfallen, da Valneva im Frühjahr seinen Beitrag zur Entwicklungskooperation

with Pfizer for the Lyme disease substance VLA15. A more sustainable

freer Cash flow is no longer affordable, both in the economy, and in the measurables and

Lizenzgebühren aus der Markteinführung von VLA15 (prepared for the

Zulassung) fell in the year 2027. Unsere letzte Studie vom 20. Augustus said

a cash position of 10 million euros. End of 2026. I am August 2023 Kündigte Valneva

a Verdoppelung der ausstehenden Schulden gegenüber seinen Hauptgläubigern

DeerField and OrbiMed for $200M. a. I’m dying in March 2024

free initial payment for the first tranche of USD 100 million. from July 2024 to

January 2026 is due. The second tranche of USD 100 million. is due Q1/27

tilt-free. Angesichts des Anstiegs der Verschuldung und der Aussicht auf

eine erheblichen Abbau der liquiden Mittel in de following 27 Monatenwar

It is still possible that Valneva has a new equity. Die ben

13. September Abgeschlossene Kapitalerhöhung with a Bruttourlös von EUR61

Mio. Valneva provides that puny flexibility, um in seine Chikungunya-,

Shigella and Zika projects are in preclinical study and

Entwicklung zu invest, for the free cash flow after the Einführung des

Lyme-Impfstoffs positive. We don’t predict, that’s Valneva Ende

2026 contains a barmittel file amounting to 64 million euros. was finished. Darum

We are looking forward to seeing the details after the Kapitalerhöhung keinen

Bedarf und Barmitteln bis zur Einführung des Lyme-Impfstoffs hat. Dies

bedeutet, dass die Anleger of the erwarteten positiven Phase-3-Daten des

Lyme-Impfstoffs (erwartet bis Ende 2025), der Zulassung en der

Market forces can be completely profitable. It is no longer possible

Course value from EUR8.60 to EUR7.70, one of the duration of the emission emission

Verwässerung Rechnung zu lagen. We are happy with our cleanliness

so, the Valneva sale promotion is as good as it gets

best commercial import portfolio as part of the Pipeline,

for everyone for VLA15, for grim unprotected halts.

Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG and dev

Perform a full analysis.

You can download the study here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30847.pdf

Contact us for questions:

First Berlin Equity Research GmbH

Mr. Gaurav Tiwari

Telephone: (0)30 809 39 686

website: www.firstberlin.com

Email: [email protected]

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1993681 23.09.2024 Central European Time/Central European Time

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