From $2 a gallon gasoline to ads for steelworkers, Harris and Trump are focusing on the economy in the latest round

In the final stretch of 2024’s most consequential election, the race could come down to who Americans trust to improve their lives and livelihoods.

The economy has consistently ranked as the No. 1 issue for registered U.S. voters in recent years, especially after President Joe Biden signed into law border restrictions in June to address migrant crossings, easing concerns about illegal immigration.

A Gallup poll released Oct. 9 found that 52 percent of voters say the economy is an “extremely important” issue that influences their vote — the highest level since the global financial crisis. During the past presidential elections, this figure fluctuated between 38 and 44 percent. Another 38 percent rate the economy as “very important.”

However, the economic mood is mixed and fragmented, meaning votes will go to the side that offers the more compelling argument. While economic data from last week shows solid quarterly growth and declining inflation, new jobs created in October fell to the lowest level since 2020, following two devastating hurricanes and labor strikes.

So far, the economy has not featured as highly in messages from Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Both have mainly exploited emotional issues to strengthen their supporters.

For Trump, this includes stoking grievances against the establishment and scapegoating, as evidenced by the inflammatory rhetoric at his rally at Madison Square Garden.

The playbook for Ms. Harris, meanwhile, focused on abortion rights and protecting democracy. In her last major speech from the Ellipse near the White House, where Trump all but incited an angry mob to dismiss Congress on January 6, 2021, she wanted to remind voters of his attempt to undermine democracy.

However, a strategy of appealing to their base of confirmed supporters may have reached its natural limits in this incredibly close election. The two campaigns have hit a wall, with both effectively tied in the seven swing states that could tilt the race: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Although Trump has the lead in more states, none has a lead of more than 2.2 percentage points, according to the Nov. 2 FiveThirtyEight polls.

Is Trump better for the American economy?

With only two days to go, the period to convince voters in person is closing. To finish strong, it is necessary to win over the remaining undecided, most of whom share a preoccupation with the economy. Both parties have very different messages about this.

At her Nov. 2 rally in Atlanta, Georgia, Ms. Harris stated that her first goal as president would be to lower the cost of living for Americans through tax cuts and Medicare expansion to cover home health care, and reiterated the same message later that same day in Charlotte. , North Carolina.

In this final week, her campaign has released ads showing her understanding of the challenges facing steelworkers and small farmers and emphasizing her support for America’s working class.

Meanwhile, Trump has taken advantage of the lackluster employment numbers, calling them “depression numbers” in his pioneering tour of Gastonia and Greensboro, North Carolina, on November 2. Economists doubt his election promise to cut spending gasoline to $2 per gallon ($0.70 per liter), repeated more than twenty times during the campaign, is realistic.