Voters chose Trump: a look at the numbers behind his victory

President-elect Donald Trump shocked Democrats this week by winning at least five battleground states and sweeping the popular vote to secure a resounding victory in the Electoral College.

Here’s a deeper look at some of the numbers that illustrate how Trump improved his performance across racial and gender lines and how the election’s mixed turnout led to a Harris loss.

Voter turnout

With some votes still being counted in Arizona and Nevada, there were about 17 million fewer voters this year than during the 2020 presidential election. The difference appears to be largely caused by low Democratic turnout.

Data from the Federal Election Commission shows that 158,429,631 people voted in 2020. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic during an election year in which mail-in ballots and early voting became a wildly successful strategy promoted by the Democratic Party, that presidential race generated the highest voter turnout ever. With all the votes tallied, Trump received about 74.2 million votes, compared to Biden’s 81.2 million.

Four years later, more than 140 million people cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election. With the Republican Party actively pushing for early voting, Trump received more than 72.7 million votes, compared to Harris’s 68.1 million votes.

The ‘blue wall’ is coming down

Low voter enthusiasm among Democrats hit Harris hard in a trio of swing states dubbed the “blue wall.” Michigan, Wisconsin, and most importantly Pennsylvania largely determined the outcome of the election, and Trump flipped them all.

Meanwhile, turnout among self-identified independent voters reached an all-time high, outpacing Democrats and on par with Republicans. It turned out to be bad news for Harris, as Trump improved his performance within the voting bloc by 4 percentage points in 2020, according to Edison Research exit poll data.

Political strategists had warned that Harris would have to perform better in Philadelphia to win the battleground of Pennsylvania. Instead, she received roughly 50,000 fewer votes in the crucial city than Biden did in 2020, while Trump received more support in the Democratic bastion than any Republican presidential candidate has had in years.

Although registered Democrats in the City of Brotherly Love outnumber Republicans seven to one, Harris saw the lowest turnout of any Democratic presidential candidate in decades, according to an analysis by the Philadelphia researcher.

Harris also saw low voter turnout in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s most populous city. Although she failed to receive as many votes as Biden in the 2020 presidential election, Trump’s support from Black voters across Wisconsin nearly tripled his performance over the demographic group four years ago, from 8% in 2020 to 22%.

Meanwhile, the staggering rise in Arab-American support for Trump in Muslim-majority strongholds across Michigan likely propelled him to victory in that battleground state.

Trump’s gains over his 2020 performance were the highest in Hamtramck, where the Muslim mayor made headlines last month for endorsing him. The former president received 42.7% of the vote and all votes were counted after the election, marking a sharp increase from the 13.4% he received in 2020.

Breaking gender and racial barriers

Historically, it has been a safe bet to vote for Democrats, but Latino voters flocked to Trump en route to his victory. Nationwide, he saw a 14-point increase among Hispanic voters over his 2020 performance, per exit polls.

Perhaps nowhere was his deeper connection with Latinos more evident than in Starr County, Texas. The area has more Hispanic voters than any other district in the United States. Trump lost by 60 points in the 2016 presidential election. On Tuesday, he won the race by 16 points.

Trump also made gains among black voters. He improved his performance within the demographic group by 5 percentage points over his 2020 performance, according to CNN exit polls.

The shifts with black and Hispanic voters in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, all major minority metropolitan cities and critical Democratic strongholds, proved likely to be the tipping point in the blue wall states.

Harris wasn’t just troubled by low voter enthusiasm among minorities. Her performance among women also deteriorated. After Biden won the women’s vote by 15 percentage points in 2020, Harris won According to CNN’s exit polls, they were only 10 points ahead.

During his victory speech early Wednesday morning, Trump attributed his victory to “the largest, the broadest, the most unified coalition” in American history.

“They came from all sides – union, non-union, African Americans, Hispanic Americans,” he told cheering supporters. “We had everyone, and it was beautiful.”

The advertisement

A crucial part of Trump’s victory came from his continued focus on issues that resonated with working-class voters, whether black, Latino or white, many of whom expressed dissatisfaction with inflation and border policies .

In mid-October, the Trump campaign released an ad arguing that Harris and her allies had their priorities wrong, focusing more on niche, progressive agenda items than on working-class people.

Following similar pitches, the ad focused on Harris’ promise to perform transgender surgeries on prisoners and her support for allowing biological males to participate in women’s sports. It concluded with a slogan that proved attractive to many voters.

“’Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you,” the narrator said as a headline flashed across the screen stating that “Trump’s tax cuts benefited the middle and working class.”

Trump allies had spent at least $17 million on the 30-second ad and similar pitches, airing it more than 30,000 times by Oct. 19, according to an NPR analysis.

Between Oct. 7 and Oct. 20, GOP affiliates poured about $95 million into field and similar ads, dropping more money on them than ads on housing, immigration and the economy “combined,” according to a PBS report.

The high-dollar gamble paid off big time for the Trump campaign, ultimately transcending gender and racial boundaries and resonating with female, Latino and black voters.

Ultimately, the race shifted in the former president’s favor by 2.7 percentage points per year New York Times report.

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In other figures that spell grim news for Harris, reports indicate her campaign has racked up $20 million in debt, despite already having $118 million on hand as of October 16.

The Harris campaign has still not denied the revelations Politics And Breitbart News. The Washington Examiner requested comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.