Tory leadership contest to dominate conference as hopefuls fail to shine

Maybe the Conservatives don’t really need a new leader after all.

Remarkably, the party has won seven council seats in the past five weeks, after suffering a crushing defeat in the general election less than three months ago.

This is despite the fact that the Tories currently have effectively no leaders.

Rishi Sunak is still nominally in charge. But even those close to him admit that he mentally stopped working on the morning of July 5.

The former prime minister will hardly be seen at the Conservatives’ annual conference in Birmingham, which starts on Sunday. He will address a members reception that evening and is not expected to play any further role in the proceedings.

Instead, the conference will be a political beauty contest as James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick battle for the right to succeed Sunak as Tory boss.

Conservative poll numbers have risen slightly recently, although this has more to do with the continued woes of the Labor government than a sudden wave of affection for the Tories.

Opinion polls from Savanta, seen by HuffPost UK, confirm that the general public is no longer paying attention to the party.

Given the choice of who would be the best opposition leader, Sunak, Nigel Farage or Ed Davey, the most popular answer was “don’t know”.

Emma Levin, deputy director at Savanta, said: “There is clearly a big gap in British politics for an opposition politician to properly hold Keir Starmer to account. But that hasn’t happened yet.”

A former Tory cabinet member, who has yet to decide who to back in the leadership race, told HuffPost UK that the conference is a chance to show the public that the party still exists.

“Because Labor is so rotten, everything is overwhelmed,” he said. “I’m honestly surprised that they make a lot of fundamental mistakes.

“People have completely forgotten about Rishi Sunak. It was all about Labor and how bad they have been.”

The MP said he hoped one of the four remaining candidates could emulate David Cameron, who used the party’s 2005 conference to destroy his more favored rival, David Davis.

“This year’s conference is about refocusing the leadership contest and highlighting the differences between the contenders.

“We’ll see how they perform, whether they make any blunders and whether any of them can deliver a Cameron-esque performance that blows all the others away.”

Under the rules of the competition, the remaining four will be reduced to three and then to two by a pair of ballots from Tory MPs when Westminster returns the following week. It is then up to the party members to determine the winner, who will be announced on November 2.

Former immigration secretary Jenrick is now the bookmakers’ favorite, overtaking previous leader Badenoch.

One of his supporters said: “There is a lot of momentum behind Robert’s campaign, but he is not taking anything for granted. He will continue to work hard to convince MPs to support his positive case for change.

“He is the only candidate who can win back voters on both the left and right with his focus on the big issues and his serious, credible answers to the key challenges of our time, such as immigration, reform of the NHS and growing our economy.”

But a Badenoch campaign source insisted she was still very much in the race.

He said: “Kemi has been traveling extensively around the country in recent months, from Conservative association to Conservative association, receiving a great reception from the members.

“All independent polls put her ahead with our membership. This conference is an opportunity to show MPs that she is the Members’ choice – the one with the outstanding quality to break through as Leader of the Opposition and take on Labor.”

Cleverly, a former party chairman, foreign secretary and home secretary is seen by many as the dark horse of the race, with even a senior figure in a rival campaign admitting he has been “underpriced” by the bookmakers.

A source from his campaign described the conference as “a home game” given his popularity among the party’s rank and file.

“He is a party man who loves campaigning and interacting with the activists and members – and he always gets a good reception from them wherever he goes, especially because he knows half of them,” the source said.

“His approach is to engage with the membership as much as possible, to make his pitch as the unity candidate and the most experienced candidate who is ready to lead from day one.”

It is barely 12 weeks since the Tories were reduced to just 121 MPs in the House of Commons, a statistical irrelevance compared to Labour’s 411 and fewer than 50 seats ahead of the Lib Dems.

Whoever wins the leadership race will face a monumental task in attempting to return the party to power in the next elections.

Nevertheless, there remains a glimmer of optimism among the party that the new Labor government’s struggles are not just a fluke, but a sign that their seemingly impregnable majority in the House of Commons can be wiped out at the first attempt.

They believe there is light at the end of a very long tunnel. Whether it turns out to be an oncoming train remains to be seen.