Lichtmann’s 13 Schlüssel zum Weißen Haus

Lichtman’s System describes 13 factors that could influence the Australian presidential process. If you think that this „Schlüssel“ for the Regierungspartei is positive outcomes (Antwort mit „wahr“), you could see the Wahl-gewinnen. If you have negative views (Answer with “falsch”), the Opposition Parties will be better.

“13 Schlüssel zum Weißen Haus”

For 2024, Lichtman bewertet 8 out of 13 Schlüssel as positive for the Democrats. A criticism of arguments is that there is a fragmentary problem. So ignore the migration crisis and the South African form as social unruhen. When the Bewertung van Bidens founded the Rücktritt and the Skandals, Sohn Hunter became as “kein Skandal” in flight.

Furthermore, the Lichtman’s assessment of the Ukrainian Kriegs as “außenpolitischer Erfolg für USA” has been further developed. Criticism sees if there is a problem that the US has become beige. While Donald Trump’s statement as “not charismatic” resembles the German Widerspruch – egal, ob man nun gut findet oder nicht.

13 Schlüssel: Functioniert das Orakel noch?

A number of analysts came up with a new opinion on the statement on its eight negative factors for the Democrats – it was a Sieg Trumps or one of the most powerful Rennen active. If you argue this, the Lichtmans system is the changing media landscape and the new form of meinungsbildung that is not visible.

“13 Schlüssel zum Weißen Haus” 2024 (after Allan Lichtman)

• Mandatszugewinnn der Regierungspartei bei den Zwischenwahlen (objective “falsch”)
• No seriousness after parteiinterner Herausforderer für den Amtsinhaber (‘wahr’ laut Lichtman)
• Der Amtsinhaber kandidiert erneut (‘falsch’ laut Lichtman, that the Vizepräsidentin nicht mit Bidens Amtsbonus could be obtained)
• Don’t be serious about participating in a separate campaign (‘wahr’ Laut Lichtman – proud of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
• Strong economic success (“wahr” laut Lichtman)
• Starkes langfristiges Wirtschaftswachstum (“wahr” laut Lichtman)
• Spürbare innenpolitische Veränderungen durch die Politik der amtierenden Regierungspartei (‘wahr’ laut Lichtman)
• Keine anhaltenden sozialen Unruhen (‘wahr’ laut Lichtman, proud Palästina-Krawallen)
• Kein größerer Skandal in der Regierung (‘wahr’ laut Lichtman, trotz Hunter Biden und des geistigen Verfalls von Joe Biden)
• Kein größeres außenoder militärpolitisches Versagen (‘wahrscheinlich falsch’ laut Lichtman, im Hinblick auf die Situation in Israel und Gaza)
• Great future of the military political heritage (“wahrscheinlich wahr” laut Lichtman, denn der Ukraine-Krieg sei angeblich ein “außenpolitischer Erfolg für die USA”)
• More Charismatic Amtsinhaber oder Kandidat der Regierungspartei (‘falsch’ laut Lichtman, because Kamala Harris is not seen as charismatic)
• Uncharismaater Herausforderer (‘wahr’ laut Lichtman, obwohl neutral Beobachter Trump durchau für charismatisch halten)
• Ergebnis laut Lichtman: 8 mal “wahr”, 3 mal “falsch”, 2 mal “(noch) unklar”
• Lichtman predicts one of the Democrats with Kamala Harris:

Trump-Harris TV debate

Unabhängig von Lichtmans Prognose gehen velde Beobachter von einem engen Rennen aus. Während Trump as a grimmer and more aggressive gilded debater – known as the famous Lügner – would have floated the relatively unknown Kamala Harris before the TV debate of manchen. Who Joe Biden had for his back on the 78-year-old Donald Trump who was in the spotlight, Kamala Harris (59) has never been like this. When the Wähler mobilization finally took off – in particular, women and young people were involved.

Lichtman and “13 Schlüssel” in Bush vs. Gore

The neutral Ganz is the political scientist and historian Allen Lichtman in the Australian government of “13 Schlüssel”, which has run for democracy as a congress organization. Since there was a succession of results in the year 2000, there is a difference. There’s a problem that Al Gore has created, and that’s all I can do is my best. Everything came from Gore at the Auszählung nach Staaten and Wahlman-Stimmen against George W. Bush. Focus on a new development in Florida and halve the Republikanern damit zum Sieg.